Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate (2025)

Results of a nationwide New York Times/Siena College poll of 2,437 likely voters, including a poll of 1,082 voters in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia, conducted from Sept. 11 to 16, 2024.

Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs | Toplines | Pennsylvania Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs | Pennsylvania Toplines

Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Almost certain

60%

60%

60%

43%

59%

65%

62%

66%

49%

44%

45%

66%

46%

67%

56%

72%

61%

52%

42%

75%

67%

52%

52%

60%

58%

63%

67%

68%

60%

63%

60%

38%

65%

63%

55%

64%

65%

34%

Very likely

31%

30%

32%

36%

33%

27%

32%

28%

44%

34%

42%

28%

40%

29%

33%

24%

31%

41%

40%

19%

26%

37%

38%

29%

34%

29%

25%

27%

31%

32%

31%

27%

30%

30%

34%

33%

29%

33%

Somewhat likely

4%

5%

4%

14%

4%

3%

2%

3%

3%

12%

5%

3%

7%

2%

5%

2%

4%

3%

9%

3%

3%

4%

6%

6%

4%

3%

3%

2%

4%

3%

4%

15%

3%

3%

6%

2%

3%

15%

Not very likely

1%

2%

<1%

4%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

3%

<.5%

<1%

2%

<1%

1%

<.5%

1%

2%

2%

<.5%

<1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

<.5%

1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

5%

Not at all likely

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

4%

1%

3%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

4%

1%

1%

2%

3%

2%

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

<1%

2%

10%

1%

1%

2%

<1%

<.5%

8%

[VOLUNTEERED] Already voted

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

[VOLUNTEERED] Don't know/Refused

2%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

2%

3%

1%

<1%

2%

4%

1%

2%

<1%

2%

<1%

2%

<1%

3%

<1%

3%

3%

<.5%

1%

2%

3%

3%

1%

2%

<1%

2%

9%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

2%

5%

Number of respondents

2,437

1,122

1,283

434

627

726

526

1,540

349

243

215

1,540

807

1,159

1,248

788

740

333

467

304

1,312

493

328

771

969

697

408

674

1,355

1,276

1,010

151

876

670

676

1,098

767

441

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

22%

33%

28%

68%

11%

10%

8%

68%

29%

41%

58%

28%

39%

11%

17%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

44%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

31%

31%

29%

43%

39%

13%

(Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to major-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

47%

40%

54%

58%

49%

47%

44%

43%

79%

51%

46%

43%

60%

61%

38%

61%

30%

66%

57%

43%

54%

43%

52%

59%

56%

29%

79%

47%

47%

100%

0%

0%

94%

5%

45%

93%

2%

43%

Donald Trump, the Republican

47%

54%

42%

37%

45%

49%

51%

54%

15%

39%

43%

54%

31%

35%

56%

36%

66%

28%

33%

52%

42%

52%

41%

34%

39%

65%

16%

50%

47%

0%

100%

0%

4%

92%

48%

5%

97%

41%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

5%

7%

4%

5%

7%

4%

5%

3%

7%

10%

11%

3%

9%

4%

6%

3%

4%

6%

11%

5%

4%

5%

7%

6%

5%

5%

5%

3%

5%

0%

0%

100%

1%

2%

7%

2%

<1%

16%

MARGIN Even Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares

Number of respondents

2,437

1,122

1,283

434

627

726

526

1,540

349

243

215

1,540

807

1,159

1,248

788

740

333

467

304

1,312

493

328

771

969

697

408

674

1,355

1,276

1,010

151

876

670

676

1,098

767

441

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

22%

33%

28%

68%

11%

10%

8%

68%

29%

41%

58%

28%

39%

11%

17%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

44%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

31%

31%

29%

43%

39%

13%

(Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to third-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

46%

39%

53%

56%

47%

46%

44%

43%

77%

49%

42%

43%

57%

60%

37%

60%

30%

64%

53%

42%

53%

43%

50%

58%

54%

29%

76%

46%

46%

98%

0%

0%

93%

5%

44%

92%

2%

41%

Donald Trump, the Republican

46%

52%

41%

33%

44%

49%

50%

53%

14%

38%

42%

53%

30%

34%

55%

35%

65%

27%

32%

50%

41%

51%

40%

34%

38%

64%

16%

48%

46%

0%

98%

0%

4%

92%

46%

5%

96%

39%

[VOL] Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate

2%

2%

1%

4%

2%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

2%

4%

1%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

2%

3%

2%

<1%

<1%

3%

1%

2%

1%

3%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

10%

<1%

<.5%

3%

1%

<.5%

4%

[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate

2%

2%

<1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

4%

3%

<1%

2%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

2%

2%

1%

<1%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

22%

<1%

<.5%

3%

<.5%

<1%

4%

[VOL] Another candidate (specify)

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

2%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

<1%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

3%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

3%

2%

3%

<.5%

3%

<1%

1%

<1%

<.5%

2%

3%

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

2%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

18%

<.5%

1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

4%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

2%

3%

2%

2%

7%

5%

2%

4%

2%

4%

2%

3%

3%

6%

4%

4%

2%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

2%

3%

<.5%

<1%

45%

<1%

1%

3%

<1%

<1%

8%

MARGIN Even Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares

Number of respondents

2,437

1,122

1,283

434

627

726

526

1,540

349

243

215

1,540

807

1,159

1,248

788

740

333

467

304

1,312

493

328

771

969

697

408

674

1,355

1,276

1,010

151

876

670

676

1,098

767

441

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

22%

33%

28%

68%

11%

10%

8%

68%

29%

41%

58%

28%

39%

11%

17%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

44%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

31%

31%

29%

43%

39%

13%

(If candidate selected, including third-party candidates) Are you definitely or probably going to vote for [CANDIDATE SELECTED]?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Definitely

86%

84%

88%

72%

86%

87%

89%

87%

86%

75%

82%

87%

81%

88%

84%

90%

86%

85%

78%

84%

88%

87%

83%

85%

86%

86%

87%

89%

86%

89%

85%

31%

92%

89%

78%

89%

91%

64%

Probably

12%

13%

11%

26%

13%

10%

8%

11%

11%

21%

17%

11%

16%

10%

13%

9%

12%

12%

19%

13%

9%

10%

16%

12%

12%

12%

11%

10%

12%

10%

13%

44%

7%

9%

19%

9%

8%

30%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

3%

2%

2%

1%

3%

3%

2%

3%

4%

1%

2%

3%

2%

3%

2%

2%

3%

2%

3%

3%

3%

1%

2%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

26%

1%

2%

4%

2%

1%

7%

Number of respondents

2,308

1,054

1,223

410

595

691

501

1,496

326

219

192

1,496

737

1,120

1,162

769

716

317

415

285

1,248

471

304

725

916

667

384

646

1,278

1,265

1,002

41

856

649

639

1,082

753

378

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

12%

21%

34%

28%

69%

11%

10%

8%

69%

28%

41%

57%

29%

40%

11%

16%

22%

20%

35%

23%

21%

44%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

49%

49%

2%

32%

32%

29%

44%

41%

12%

(Leaners, if not supporting Trump or Harris in previous multi-candidate questions) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

14%

10%

20%

16%

21%

20%

4%

9%

18%

17%

24%

9%

20%

18%

12%

21%

1%

17%

22%

14%

15%

6%

20%

12%

19%

8%

40%

24%

13%

100%

0%

0%

39%

9%

16%

29%

14%

9%

Donald Trump, the Republican

14%

16%

10%

40%

7%

5%

13%

23%

1%

12%

6%

23%

7%

17%

12%

22%

24%

13%

5%

27%

12%

13%

5%

2%

13%

21%

<1%

18%

13%

0%

100%

0%

10%

23%

18%

7%

56%

13%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

73%

74%

70%

45%

71%

75%

83%

68%

80%

70%

70%

68%

73%

65%

76%

57%

75%

70%

73%

58%

73%

81%

75%

86%

68%

71%

60%

58%

73%

0%

0%

100%

51%

68%

66%

64%

30%

78%

Number of respondents

229

122

103

55

69

55

33

95

34

37

42

95

113

87

138

46

48

34

77

33

110

39

47

83

86

60

45

46

138

49

29

151

32

29

96

43

28

102

Percentage of total electorate

100%

57%

41%

18%

27%

23%

25%

44%

12%

19%

18%

44%

49%

33%

66%

18%

26%

13%

35%

23%

16%

29%

32%

20%

43%

36%

<.5%

3%

96%

14%

14%

73%

11%

13%

39%

18%

11%

35%

(Responses reclassified by age group) In what year were you born?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

18-29

13%

12%

12%

100%

0%

0%

0%

10%

12%

29%

22%

10%

21%

9%

16%

7%

12%

14%

25%

13%

11%

10%

17%

18%

13%

9%

15%

12%

13%

15%

10%

11%

15%

8%

14%

10%

5%

42%

30-44

22%

21%

22%

0%

100%

0%

0%

20%

22%

22%

36%

20%

26%

26%

19%

25%

16%

29%

24%

17%

20%

24%

24%

26%

22%

19%

29%

21%

22%

22%

20%

26%

23%

18%

22%

23%

20%

18%

45-64

33%

34%

33%

0%

0%

100%

0%

34%

40%

28%

27%

34%

32%

37%

30%

37%

31%

40%

27%

32%

36%

35%

29%

33%

34%

32%

28%

32%

33%

33%

34%

24%

33%

36%

34%

35%

36%

26%

65+

28%

29%

28%

0%

0%

0%

100%

33%

22%

18%

7%

33%

16%

23%

32%

28%

37%

13%

19%

32%

28%

27%

27%

20%

26%

35%

22%

30%

28%

26%

30%

29%

26%

34%

26%

27%

34%

10%

Refused

5%

4%

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

3%

4%

3%

8%

3%

5%

5%

4%

3%

3%

5%

5%

5%

5%

4%

4%

3%

4%

6%

6%

5%

5%

3%

5%

10%

4%

5%

4%

4%

5%

4%

Number of respondents

2,437

1,122

1,283

434

627

726

526

1,540

349

243

215

1,540

807

1,159

1,248

788

740

333

467

304

1,312

493

328

771

969

697

408

674

1,355

1,276

1,010

151

876

670

676

1,098

767

441

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

22%

33%

28%

68%

11%

10%

8%

68%

29%

41%

58%

28%

39%

11%

17%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

44%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

31%

31%

29%

43%

39%

13%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Grade school

2%

3%

1%

<1%

2%

3%

2%

2%

2%

5%

9%

2%

5%

0%

4%

0%

3%

0%

8%

3%

2%

2%

2%

4%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

1%

3%

8%

1%

4%

1%

2%

2%

5%

High school

25%

28%

23%

33%

18%

19%

36%

26%

28%

31%

20%

26%

27%

0%

44%

0%

45%

0%

44%

27%

26%

25%

25%

19%

23%

33%

30%

32%

25%

18%

33%

25%

18%

34%

22%

16%

32%

35%

Vocational or trade school

4%

5%

3%

5%

4%

4%

5%

4%

3%

7%

1%

4%

4%

0%

7%

0%

7%

0%

7%

6%

3%

4%

3%

4%

3%

6%

6%

4%

4%

3%

5%

4%

4%

4%

4%

3%

5%

6%

Some college, no degree

17%

16%

18%

22%

14%

17%

16%

17%

18%

15%

13%

17%

16%

0%

29%

0%

29%

0%

26%

16%

11%

16%

22%

18%

16%

17%

13%

15%

17%

16%

17%

19%

15%

17%

19%

14%

17%

22%

Associate’s degree

9%

8%

10%

11%

12%

9%

7%

9%

6%

10%

10%

9%

9%

0%

16%

0%

16%

0%

14%

11%

9%

9%

10%

8%

9%

10%

8%

7%

9%

8%

10%

13%

7%

10%

10%

8%

11%

7%

Bachelor's degree

25%

23%

26%

22%

30%

26%

20%

26%

27%

21%

20%

26%

23%

61%

0%

62%

0%

58%

0%

23%

26%

27%

22%

27%

28%

19%

22%

23%

25%

32%

18%

18%

34%

19%

24%

35%

19%

15%

Graduate or professional degree

16%

15%

17%

6%

19%

20%

13%

16%

15%

10%

24%

16%

16%

39%

0%

38%

0%

42%

0%

12%

21%

16%

15%

18%

18%

12%

16%

16%

16%

21%

11%

12%

21%

11%

18%

22%

12%

9%

[VOL] Refused

1%

1%

2%

0%

<.5%

2%

<1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

1%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

<.5%

1%

2%

<1%

2%

2%

<.5%

2%

2%

<1%

2%

<1%

Number of respondents

2,437

1,122

1,283

434

627

726

526

1,540

349

243

215

1,540

807

1,159

1,248

788

740

333

467

304

1,312

493

328

771

969

697

408

674

1,355

1,276

1,010

151

876

670

676

1,098

767

441

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

22%

33%

28%

68%

11%

10%

8%

68%

29%

41%

58%

28%

39%

11%

17%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

44%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

31%

31%

29%

43%

39%

13%

Would you consider yourself:

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

White

67%

67%

68%

52%

62%

68%

79%

99%

0%

0%

0%

99%

0%

68%

67%

99%

99%

0%

0%

79%

73%

63%

57%

56%

62%

80%

39%

82%

67%

62%

76%

38%

58%

80%

68%

62%

82%

48%

Hispanic or Latino

10%

10%

10%

23%

10%

8%

6%

0%

0%

99%

0%

0%

35%

8%

12%

0%

0%

28%

39%

3%

7%

12%

16%

16%

12%

5%

9%

4%

10%

11%

8%

18%

12%

7%

10%

11%

5%

20%

Black or African American

11%

11%

11%

10%

11%

13%

9%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

37%

11%

11%

0%

0%

40%

35%

10%

8%

16%

6%

15%

13%

6%

37%

6%

11%

18%

3%

14%

20%

3%

7%

17%

2%

13%

Asian

3%

4%

3%

8%

5%

3%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

39%

0%

11%

3%

3%

0%

0%

12%

10%

2%

3%

2%

6%

5%

5%

<.5%

4%

1%

3%

4%

3%

<1%

3%

2%

4%

4%

2%

5%

American Indian or Alaska Native

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

15%

0%

4%

1%

1%

0%

0%

5%

4%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

2%

0%

<.5%

1%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

2%

<1%

1%

2%

Middle Eastern or North African

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

11%

0%

3%

<1%

<1%

0%

0%

3%

3%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

8%

<.5%

<1%

1%

<.5%

<1%

1%

Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

6%

0%

2%

<1%

<.5%

0%

0%

3%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

2%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

[VOL] Some other race (specify)

2%

2%

1%

<1%

2%

2%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

10%

<1%

3%

2%

2%

1%

<1%

4%

3%

1%

<1%

2%

3%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

2%

<1%

2%

6%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

2%

[VOL] More than one race

1%

2%

1%

2%

3%

<1%

<1%

0%

0%

0%

19%

0%

5%

2%

1%

0%

0%

6%

5%

<1%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

<.5%

4%

<1%

2%

2%

<1%

4%

2%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

5%

[VOL] Refused

3%

3%

4%

<.5%

2%

3%

4%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

3%

3%

0%

0%

0%

0%

3%

4%

3%

4%

3%

4%

3%

5%

2%

3%

2%

4%

9%

2%

4%

3%

2%

4%

3%

Number of respondents

2,437

1,122

1,283

434

627

726

526

1,540

349

243

215

1,540

807

1,159

1,248

788

740

333

467

304

1,312

493

328

771

969

697

408

674

1,355

1,276

1,010

151

876

670

676

1,098

767

441

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

22%

33%

28%

68%

11%

10%

8%

68%

29%

41%

58%

28%

39%

11%

17%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

44%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

31%

31%

29%

43%

39%

13%

Note: Responses to questions after this point are reported only for respondents who completed the entire questionnaire.

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Democrat

32%

25%

39%

38%

34%

30%

31%

27%

64%

37%

25%

27%

44%

43%

25%

40%

19%

53%

39%

31%

37%

28%

34%

45%

36%

19%

63%

36%

32%

64%

3%

4%

100%

0%

0%

64%

2%

23%

Republican

31%

33%

29%

17%

24%

34%

39%

38%

10%

17%

19%

38%

15%

22%

37%

27%

45%

10%

17%

35%

27%

33%

28%

20%

24%

46%

12%

40%

31%

4%

61%

10%

0%

100%

0%

4%

66%

18%

Independent

30%

34%

26%

36%

33%

30%

25%

30%

21%

33%

39%

30%

30%

31%

30%

29%

31%

34%

28%

29%

32%

30%

30%

27%

33%

29%

19%

22%

31%

27%

31%

46%

0%

0%

100%

27%

27%

47%

Another party

4%

5%

2%

5%

7%

2%

2%

3%

4%

4%

14%

3%

6%

3%

5%

3%

2%

2%

9%

2%

2%

6%

4%

4%

3%

4%

2%

1%

4%

3%

2%

23%

0%

0%

0%

3%

2%

5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

3%

3%

4%

2%

3%

3%

2%

1%

9%

4%

2%

5%

1%

4%

<1%

3%

2%

7%

3%

2%

3%

4%

4%

3%

3%

4%

2%

3%

2%

3%

18%

0%

0%

0%

2%

2%

6%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

(If independent, another party or not sure) And as of today, do you lean more to:

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

The Democratic Party

38%

35%

43%

56%

40%

33%

34%

35%

58%

39%

47%

35%

46%

48%

32%

50%

26%

47%

47%

29%

42%

37%

44%

45%

43%

27%

65%

40%

38%

86%

4%

9%

-

-

40%

78%

2%

35%

The Republican Party

43%

43%

43%

30%

41%

46%

45%

52%

16%

32%

25%

52%

26%

36%

48%

36%

63%

38%

19%

57%

44%

44%

30%

29%

40%

56%

18%

46%

43%

4%

85%

16%

-

-

46%

7%

90%

37%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

19%

22%

15%

14%

18%

20%

20%

12%

27%

29%

27%

12%

28%

16%

20%

14%

12%

16%

34%

14%

14%

18%

26%

26%

17%

17%

18%

14%

19%

10%

11%

75%

-

-

14%

15%

7%

28%

Number of respondents

711

381

312

140

222

204

111

438

81

83

77

438

241

341

362

220

215

105

134

106

318

170

117

213

303

195

90

147

474

333

301

77

578

281

195

190

Percentage of total electorate

100%

54%

44%

15%

24%

32%

24%

64%

8%

13%

11%

64%

32%

38%

61%

25%

38%

11%

21%

20%

19%

36%

24%

20%

46%

34%

<.5%

3%

97%

41%

47%

13%

82%

37%

35%

19%

Combined: Party identification and leaners

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

The Democratic Party

46%

39%

52%

63%

51%

42%

41%

40%

79%

55%

52%

40%

63%

60%

37%

57%

28%

70%

59%

41%

52%

43%

51%

61%

53%

28%

79%

45%

46%

92%

4%

12%

100%

0%

40%

89%

3%

44%

The Republican Party

47%

51%

43%

31%

41%

50%

53%

56%

14%

32%

33%

56%

25%

35%

55%

39%

68%

24%

26%

54%

43%

50%

39%

30%

40%

66%

16%

51%

47%

5%

92%

23%

0%

100%

46%

7%

95%

40%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

7%

9%

5%

6%

8%

7%

6%

4%

7%

13%

15%

4%

11%

5%

8%

4%

4%

6%

15%

5%

5%

7%

10%

9%

7%

6%

5%

3%

7%

3%

4%

64%

0%

0%

14%

5%

2%

17%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Donald Trump

41%

44%

38%

15%

36%

44%

50%

50%

9%

19%

24%

50%

16%

30%

47%

34%

62%

19%

15%

48%

36%

44%

33%

27%

32%

59%

12%

43%

41%

2%

84%

5%

2%

86%

37%

0%

100%

0%

Joe Biden

44%

37%

50%

39%

48%

46%

41%

39%

73%

52%

39%

39%

56%

61%

32%

59%

24%

67%

50%

37%

53%

41%

46%

57%

52%

26%

73%

45%

43%

85%

5%

14%

87%

6%

39%

100%

0%

0%

I did not vote

12%

13%

10%

42%

10%

9%

4%

9%

14%

23%

23%

9%

19%

7%

15%

5%

11%

12%

24%

11%

11%

11%

15%

14%

12%

10%

12%

10%

12%

11%

10%

39%

8%

7%

19%

0%

0%

100%

[VOL] Someone else

3%

4%

1%

3%

6%

1%

2%

2%

<.5%

5%

9%

2%

4%

1%

4%

1%

2%

<1%

6%

2%

<.5%

3%

4%

<1%

3%

3%

2%

1%

3%

1%

<1%

28%

<1%

<.5%

5%

0%

0%

0%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

2%

<.5%

4%

2%

5%

<.5%

4%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

5%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

3%

1%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

2%

1%

<1%

14%

1%

<1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

(Excluding "I did not vote") Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Donald Trump

46%

50%

42%

26%

40%

48%

52%

55%

10%

24%

32%

55%

20%

32%

56%

36%

70%

22%

19%

54%

40%

49%

38%

32%

36%

66%

14%

48%

46%

2%

93%

9%

3%

93%

45%

0%

100%

-

Joe Biden

49%

43%

56%

67%

53%

50%

43%

42%

85%

67%

50%

42%

70%

66%

38%

63%

27%

76%

66%

41%

59%

46%

53%

66%

59%

29%

83%

50%

49%

95%

6%

23%

95%

7%

48%

100%

0%

-

[VOL] Someone else

3%

4%

1%

5%

6%

1%

2%

2%

<.5%

6%

11%

2%

5%

1%

4%

1%

3%

1%

8%

2%

<1%

4%

4%

<1%

3%

4%

3%

1%

3%

2%

<1%

46%

<1%

<.5%

6%

0%

0%

-

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

3%

<1%

2%

1%

<1%

2%

<.5%

5%

3%

7%

<.5%

5%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

7%

3%

<.5%

<.5%

4%

2%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

2%

1%

<1%

22%

1%

<1%

1%

0%

0%

-

Number of respondents

1,670

754

891

203

428

561

403

1,182

206

123

107

1,182

436

916

741

665

510

226

208

217

903

338

212

492

680

498

259

487

924

921

692

57

652

497

433

952

656

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

8%

22%

34%

32%

70%

10%

9%

6%

70%

26%

42%

56%

30%

39%

11%

15%

22%

20%

35%

23%

20%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

48%

48%

4%

33%

33%

28%

49%

46%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following.

Donald Trump

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very favorable

32%

33%

30%

17%

22%

35%

42%

37%

12%

23%

22%

37%

19%

19%

40%

21%

48%

14%

21%

33%

29%

36%

26%

23%

23%

47%

8%

31%

32%

<1%

65%

11%

2%

71%

23%

3%

68%

21%

Somewhat favorable

16%

19%

12%

16%

22%

14%

11%

16%

7%

17%

19%

16%

14%

14%

16%

13%

18%

14%

13%

18%

12%

16%

17%

12%

16%

18%

11%

17%

15%

2%

30%

14%

3%

21%

23%

3%

27%

21%

Somewhat unfavorable

7%

9%

4%

15%

7%

7%

3%

5%

11%

7%

13%

5%

10%

7%

6%

5%

5%

12%

9%

8%

5%

6%

7%

5%

6%

8%

7%

6%

7%

7%

4%

23%

4%

2%

12%

7%

2%

16%

Very unfavorable

44%

36%

52%

50%

47%

42%

44%

42%

67%

45%

40%

42%

52%

59%

34%

60%

29%

60%

47%

40%

52%

40%

47%

57%

53%

26%

71%

45%

44%

88%

1%

31%

88%

5%

41%

85%

2%

39%

[VOL] Have not heard of

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

0%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

3%

2%

3%

3%

3%

1%

<.5%

3%

8%

7%

<.5%

6%

<1%

3%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

9%

1%

2%

2%

3%

4%

2%

<1%

3%

1%

2%

2%

<.5%

20%

3%

1%

<1%

2%

<.5%

4%

NET Favorable

47%

52%

43%

32%

44%

48%

52%

53%

19%

40%

40%

53%

32%

33%

56%

35%

66%

28%

35%

51%

41%

51%

43%

34%

39%

65%

19%

48%

47%

2%

94%

25%

5%

92%

46%

6%

95%

41%

NET Unfavorable

51%

45%

55%

65%

53%

49%

47%

47%

78%

52%

53%

47%

62%

66%

41%

65%

34%

72%

56%

47%

57%

46%

54%

61%

59%

34%

78%

50%

50%

95%

5%

55%

92%

7%

53%

92%

4%

55%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very favorable

30%

24%

35%

16%

27%

33%

36%

29%

51%

31%

18%

29%

35%

40%

24%

41%

20%

40%

32%

26%

34%

30%

30%

36%

36%

19%

48%

33%

30%

62%

<1%

2%

70%

4%

19%

62%

2%

16%

Somewhat favorable

18%

17%

20%

43%

23%

15%

8%

14%

28%

26%

28%

14%

27%

22%

16%

21%

10%

27%

28%

17%

21%

17%

20%

25%

21%

11%

29%

15%

18%

33%

4%

14%

24%

3%

27%

30%

2%

34%

Somewhat unfavorable

8%

10%

6%

16%

11%

8%

3%

7%

4%

13%

16%

7%

10%

8%

8%

7%

7%

12%

10%

8%

9%

8%

8%

9%

8%

8%

6%

9%

8%

2%

13%

20%

2%

11%

11%

4%

11%

14%

Very unfavorable

41%

46%

36%

21%

37%

44%

50%

48%

15%

22%

35%

48%

23%

29%

50%

32%

61%

20%

24%

48%

35%

43%

37%

27%

34%

59%

13%

42%

41%

<1%

81%

45%

2%

81%

41%

4%

84%

31%

[VOL] Have not heard of

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

0%

3%

<.5%

0%

1%

<.5%

<1%

0%

0%

<.5%

2%

0%

<.5%

0%

1%

<1%

0%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

7%

<.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

2%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

<1%

2%

1%

2%

4%

3%

1%

3%

<1%

3%

<.5%

2%

1%

5%

1%

<1%

2%

3%

3%

1%

2%

4%

<1%

2%

1%

1%

13%

2%

<1%

2%

1%

1%

3%

NET Favorable

48%

41%

55%

59%

51%

47%

44%

43%

79%

57%

46%

43%

62%

62%

40%

61%

30%

67%

60%

43%

56%

47%

50%

60%

57%

30%

77%

48%

48%

96%

5%

15%

94%

7%

45%

91%

4%

50%

NET Unfavorable

49%

57%

42%

37%

47%

52%

53%

56%

19%

36%

50%

56%

33%

37%

57%

39%

68%

32%

33%

56%

43%

52%

45%

36%

41%

67%

19%

51%

50%

3%

94%

65%

5%

92%

52%

7%

95%

45%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Taylor Swift

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very favorable

17%

13%

21%

14%

19%

14%

23%

18%

17%

21%

12%

18%

17%

22%

14%

24%

13%

18%

17%

15%

19%

18%

15%

23%

18%

13%

21%

18%

17%

30%

6%

9%

34%

7%

11%

31%

6%

11%

Somewhat favorable

27%

28%

26%

35%

31%

28%

20%

27%

35%

21%

30%

27%

29%

34%

22%

36%

20%

31%

28%

27%

31%

23%

29%

29%

29%

23%

30%

27%

27%

39%

16%

14%

36%

16%

30%

37%

17%

25%

Somewhat unfavorable

11%

13%

10%

22%

12%

9%

7%

11%

8%

12%

10%

11%

10%

9%

12%

9%

13%

10%

10%

12%

9%

11%

12%

10%

12%

11%

11%

12%

11%

7%

14%

15%

5%

14%

15%

6%

14%

20%

Very unfavorable

23%

23%

22%

20%

21%

26%

23%

24%

17%

20%

30%

24%

21%

14%

29%

13%

32%

14%

26%

21%

22%

27%

20%

18%

21%

29%

12%

22%

23%

5%

40%

29%

6%

46%

17%

6%

43%

20%

[VOL] Have not heard of

4%

5%

3%

1%

2%

5%

6%

3%

6%

13%

2%

3%

7%

3%

5%

3%

3%

5%

9%

4%

2%

4%

7%

7%

3%

4%

5%

2%

4%

3%

4%

10%

4%

3%

5%

3%

4%

6%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

18%

18%

17%

9%

16%

19%

21%

18%

18%

14%

15%

18%

15%

18%

17%

15%

19%

22%

11%

21%

16%

17%

17%

14%

16%

21%

22%

18%

17%

15%

19%

22%

15%

14%

22%

17%

18%

17%

NET Favorable

44%

41%

48%

48%

50%

42%

43%

45%

52%

42%

43%

45%

46%

56%

36%

60%

33%

49%

44%

43%

51%

42%

44%

52%

48%

36%

51%

46%

44%

69%

22%

23%

70%

23%

41%

68%

22%

36%

NET Unfavorable

34%

36%

32%

42%

32%

35%

30%

35%

25%

32%

40%

35%

31%

23%

42%

22%

45%

24%

36%

32%

31%

38%

32%

27%

33%

39%

23%

34%

34%

12%

55%

45%

11%

60%

32%

11%

56%

40%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

And when it comes to the November election, would you say you’re very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic about voting, not very enthusiastic about voting or not at all enthusiastic about voting?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very enthusiastic

59%

59%

60%

31%

51%

60%

77%

64%

58%

44%

43%

64%

49%

63%

57%

66%

62%

55%

45%

59%

60%

62%

55%

59%

58%

61%

59%

63%

59%

63%

60%

26%

69%

67%

45%

65%

64%

29%

Somewhat enthusiastic

23%

22%

24%

37%

26%

25%

13%

21%

24%

33%

28%

21%

28%

21%

25%

19%

21%

23%

32%

25%

26%

20%

24%

23%

24%

22%

25%

21%

23%

24%

23%

10%

22%

21%

28%

22%

23%

31%

Not very enthusiastic

9%

10%

9%

23%

11%

7%

6%

9%

7%

12%

14%

9%

11%

10%

9%

9%

9%

12%

9%

8%

7%

9%

13%

10%

10%

8%

6%

10%

9%

7%

10%

23%

6%

7%

15%

7%

8%

20%

Not at all enthusiastic

7%

9%

6%

9%

12%

7%

4%

6%

11%

11%

14%

6%

12%

7%

8%

6%

6%

10%

13%

7%

6%

9%

7%

9%

7%

8%

8%

6%

8%

5%

6%

40%

3%

5%

11%

5%

5%

18%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

0%

<1%

2%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

0%

1%

0%

2%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

2%

NET Enthusiastic

82%

81%

84%

68%

77%

85%

89%

84%

82%

76%

71%

84%

77%

83%

82%

86%

83%

78%

77%

85%

86%

81%

79%

81%

82%

84%

85%

84%

82%

87%

83%

37%

91%

88%

73%

87%

87%

60%

NET Not enthusiastic

17%

19%

15%

32%

23%

14%

9%

15%

18%

23%

28%

15%

23%

17%

17%

14%

15%

22%

22%

15%

13%

18%

21%

19%

17%

16%

14%

15%

17%

12%

16%

63%

9%

12%

26%

12%

13%

38%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Did you watch or hear about the presidential debate that took place on Tuesday, September 10?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Watched on debate night

69%

68%

70%

47%

60%

72%

81%

71%

73%

56%

65%

71%

65%

74%

65%

75%

68%

73%

60%

66%

73%

68%

69%

71%

71%

65%

69%

71%

69%

72%

68%

46%

72%

72%

66%

74%

72%

44%

Watched clips afterward

12%

12%

12%

27%

17%

10%

4%

11%

7%

14%

22%

11%

14%

11%

13%

11%

12%

12%

15%

10%

11%

11%

15%

11%

13%

11%

11%

10%

12%

13%

11%

12%

12%

9%

14%

10%

10%

24%

Heard about the debate

11%

11%

11%

17%

11%

8%

9%

10%

10%

11%

8%

10%

10%

9%

12%

9%

11%

7%

11%

15%

11%

8%

9%

6%

11%

14%

9%

10%

11%

8%

11%

31%

7%

10%

14%

8%

10%

17%

No

8%

9%

8%

9%

12%

9%

5%

7%

9%

20%

5%

7%

12%

6%

10%

5%

8%

8%

14%

8%

5%

11%

7%

10%

6%

10%

11%

8%

8%

7%

10%

11%

8%

9%

7%

7%

8%

15%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

NET Watched or heard about

91%

91%

92%

91%

88%

91%

95%

93%

91%

80%

95%

93%

88%

94%

90%

94%

92%

92%

86%

92%

95%

88%

93%

89%

94%

90%

89%

92%

91%

93%

90%

89%

92%

91%

93%

92%

92%

85%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

(If watched or heard about the debate) How well do you think Kamala Harris did in the presidential debate?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

35%

31%

39%

25%

35%

34%

41%

34%

61%

31%

22%

34%

40%

44%

28%

44%

26%

47%

35%

30%

40%

36%

33%

44%

39%

24%

55%

38%

35%

67%

5%

12%

70%

7%

29%

65%

5%

29%

Somewhat well

32%

37%

27%

50%

35%

32%

21%

30%

26%

41%

48%

30%

37%

34%

30%

34%

27%

35%

39%

33%

35%

26%

36%

31%

36%

27%

32%

28%

32%

30%

34%

31%

25%

31%

39%

29%

32%

39%

Not too well

13%

12%

14%

14%

15%

14%

11%

14%

7%

12%

9%

14%

9%

10%

15%

10%

17%

7%

10%

10%

12%

15%

14%

11%

10%

19%

9%

10%

13%

<1%

26%

12%

2%

26%

11%

2%

25%

15%

Not well at all

16%

18%

15%

5%

11%

17%

24%

18%

5%

12%

18%

18%

11%

9%

22%

9%

25%

9%

12%

22%

9%

21%

12%

12%

12%

24%

2%

19%

16%

<.5%

32%

25%

<1%

33%

14%

<1%

34%

12%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

4%

3%

5%

7%

3%

3%

4%

4%

2%

5%

3%

4%

3%

4%

4%

3%

4%

2%

4%

5%

4%

3%

4%

2%

3%

6%

3%

4%

4%

3%

4%

20%

2%

3%

7%

2%

4%

5%

NET Well

67%

68%

66%

75%

70%

66%

62%

63%

87%

71%

70%

63%

77%

78%

59%

78%

53%

82%

74%

63%

75%

61%

69%

75%

75%

51%

87%

67%

66%

96%

38%

44%

96%

38%

68%

95%

37%

68%

NET Not well

29%

30%

29%

18%

27%

30%

34%

33%

12%

24%

28%

33%

20%

18%

37%

19%

43%

17%

22%

32%

21%

35%

26%

23%

22%

43%

11%

29%

30%

<1%

58%

37%

2%

59%

25%

3%

59%

27%

Number of respondents

1,829

840

961

319

457

579

398

1,241

243

148

141

1,241

532

955

858

679

554

250

280

241

973

366

249

548

760

521

278

513

1,038

1,005

741

83

691

504

526

895

599

277

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

21%

33%

30%

69%

11%

9%

8%

69%

28%

41%

58%

29%

39%

11%

16%

22%

21%

34%

24%

20%

45%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

48%

47%

5%

32%

31%

31%

44%

41%

11%

(If watched or heard about the debate) How well do you think Donald Trump did in the presidential debate?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

13%

15%

11%

7%

9%

13%

16%

14%

4%

10%

11%

14%

8%

8%

16%

8%

19%

6%

9%

13%

7%

15%

14%

9%

10%

19%

4%

12%

13%

<.5%

27%

4%

<1%

30%

8%

<.5%

28%

9%

Somewhat well

27%

30%

24%

22%

29%

26%

28%

29%

15%

22%

30%

29%

22%

18%

34%

18%

38%

18%

24%

31%

24%

29%

24%

18%

24%

37%

11%

25%

27%

3%

52%

28%

4%

47%

31%

5%

52%

26%

Not too well

18%

18%

17%

26%

21%

16%

12%

16%

12%

33%

20%

16%

21%

20%

16%

20%

13%

19%

23%

20%

20%

12%

21%

23%

18%

13%

26%

18%

18%

18%

17%

23%

17%

16%

18%

18%

14%

23%

Not well at all

39%

33%

44%

37%

40%

41%

39%

37%

66%

31%

34%

37%

45%

52%

30%

52%

27%

56%

38%

32%

45%

40%

37%

47%

45%

25%

56%

42%

38%

76%

2%

22%

75%

5%

37%

73%

3%

37%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

4%

4%

4%

7%

2%

4%

4%

3%

3%

5%

5%

3%

4%

3%

5%

2%

4%

2%

6%

4%

5%

3%

4%

3%

3%

6%

3%

3%

4%

3%

2%

24%

3%

1%

6%

3%

2%

5%

NET Well

40%

45%

35%

30%

37%

39%

45%

44%

18%

32%

41%

44%

29%

26%

50%

26%

56%

24%

33%

44%

31%

44%

38%

27%

33%

56%

15%

38%

40%

3%

79%

31%

5%

77%

39%

5%

80%

35%

NET Not well

56%

51%

60%

63%

61%

57%

51%

53%

78%

64%

54%

53%

67%

71%

46%

72%

40%

75%

61%

52%

64%

53%

58%

70%

63%

39%

82%

59%

56%

94%

19%

45%

92%

21%

55%

91%

18%

60%

Number of respondents

1,829

840

961

319

457

579

398

1,241

243

148

141

1,241

532

955

858

679

554

250

280

241

973

366

249

548

760

521

278

513

1,038

1,005

741

83

691

504

526

895

599

277

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

21%

33%

30%

69%

11%

9%

8%

69%

28%

41%

58%

29%

39%

11%

16%

22%

21%

34%

24%

20%

45%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

48%

47%

5%

32%

31%

31%

44%

41%

11%

(If watched or heard about the debate) Do you think the debate moderators were generally fair or unfair?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very fair

33%

29%

37%

32%

32%

29%

38%

29%

59%

42%

23%

29%

43%

38%

29%

36%

24%

46%

42%

27%

35%

35%

32%

39%

38%

23%

47%

33%

33%

61%

4%

25%

63%

6%

30%

61%

3%

28%

Somewhat fair

19%

19%

20%

33%

23%

21%

11%

19%

17%

24%

25%

19%

21%

21%

18%

22%

16%

18%

24%

22%

21%

14%

23%

25%

22%

13%

26%

19%

19%

26%

13%

21%

24%

12%

21%

24%

12%

30%

Somewhat unfair

12%

14%

10%

11%

13%

11%

12%

13%

8%

7%

15%

13%

10%

13%

11%

13%

13%

12%

8%

11%

14%

10%

13%

12%

12%

12%

10%

12%

12%

5%

18%

15%

6%

19%

10%

6%

17%

13%

Very unfair

30%

33%

26%

14%

23%

34%

35%

33%

13%

22%

28%

33%

20%

23%

35%

24%

40%

20%

20%

31%

24%

36%

25%

19%

24%

44%

10%

30%

30%

<1%

60%

21%

2%

60%

30%

3%

62%

21%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

6%

5%

8%

10%

9%

5%

4%

6%

3%

5%

9%

6%

5%

6%

7%

5%

7%

4%

6%

8%

6%

5%

7%

5%

5%

9%

7%

6%

6%

6%

5%

18%

5%

3%

10%

6%

5%

8%

NET Generally fair

52%

48%

57%

65%

55%

50%

49%

48%

75%

66%

48%

48%

65%

59%

47%

59%

40%

63%

66%

49%

56%

49%

56%

64%

59%

36%

73%

52%

52%

87%

17%

46%

87%

17%

51%

85%

15%

58%

NET Generally unfair

42%

47%

36%

24%

36%

45%

47%

46%

21%

29%

43%

46%

30%

35%

46%

37%

53%

32%

28%

42%

38%

46%

37%

31%

36%

55%

20%

43%

42%

6%

78%

37%

8%

79%

40%

9%

80%

35%

Number of respondents

1,829

840

961

319

457

579

398

1,241

243

148

141

1,241

532

955

858

679

554

250

280

241

973

366

249

548

760

521

278

513

1,038

1,005

741

83

691

504

526

895

599

277

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

21%

33%

30%

69%

11%

9%

8%

69%

28%

41%

58%

29%

39%

11%

16%

22%

21%

34%

24%

20%

45%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

48%

47%

5%

32%

31%

31%

44%

41%

11%

Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following:

The economy

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala Harris

41%

34%

47%

43%

43%

41%

42%

39%

67%

41%

35%

39%

49%

55%

32%

56%

27%

56%

45%

35%

47%

40%

42%

53%

49%

24%

72%

44%

41%

86%

<.5%

7%

85%

5%

36%

83%

1%

31%

Donald Trump

54%

60%

49%

46%

53%

54%

56%

58%

30%

47%

56%

58%

43%

41%

63%

41%

70%

40%

45%

61%

47%

58%

48%

41%

45%

73%

23%

54%

54%

9%

99%

54%

10%

93%

58%

13%

99%

52%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

5%

5%

4%

11%

4%

5%

2%

3%

3%

12%

9%

3%

8%

4%

5%

3%

3%

4%

11%

4%

5%

1%

10%

6%

5%

3%

5%

2%

5%

5%

<1%

38%

4%

2%

6%

5%

<.5%

17%

MARGIN Trump +13 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Abortion

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala Harris

54%

47%

60%

73%

58%

53%

45%

48%

83%

63%

59%

48%

69%

67%

45%

64%

36%

77%

65%

47%

63%

50%

57%

65%

63%

35%

83%

56%

53%

97%

12%

41%

95%

11%

57%

94%

10%

60%

Donald Trump

41%

45%

37%

21%

37%

41%

50%

47%

13%

28%

38%

47%

25%

29%

49%

32%

58%

21%

27%

45%

32%

45%

38%

26%

32%

60%

12%

37%

41%

1%

81%

31%

2%

82%

37%

4%

85%

28%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

6%

8%

3%

6%

5%

6%

5%

5%

3%

9%

3%

5%

6%

4%

7%

4%

6%

2%

8%

8%

5%

5%

5%

9%

5%

5%

4%

7%

6%

2%

7%

29%

2%

7%

6%

2%

6%

12%

MARGIN Harris +13 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Immigration

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala Harris

42%

34%

50%

57%

42%

41%

40%

38%

66%

51%

43%

38%

54%

57%

33%

57%

25%

60%

51%

35%

48%

39%

48%

54%

51%

24%

71%

41%

42%

86%

2%

14%

87%

5%

38%

82%

<1%

41%

Donald Trump

54%

63%

46%

38%

52%

54%

59%

59%

31%

39%

53%

59%

40%

39%

63%

40%

72%

37%

41%

60%

48%

58%

46%

39%

45%

73%

26%

56%

54%

10%

97%

56%

10%

94%

57%

13%

98%

53%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

4%

4%

4%

4%

6%

5%

2%

3%

3%

10%

4%

3%

6%

4%

4%

3%

2%

3%

8%

4%

4%

2%

6%

8%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

4%

<1%

30%

3%

2%

5%

5%

<1%

7%

MARGIN Trump +11 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Democracy

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala Harris

50%

43%

56%

65%

53%

48%

44%

44%

80%

58%

51%

44%

64%

65%

40%

63%

31%

70%

61%

44%

57%

47%

52%

63%

59%

31%

78%

49%

50%

98%

5%

23%

96%

6%

49%

93%

4%

53%

Donald Trump

46%

50%

41%

31%

41%

47%

52%

52%

15%

32%

47%

52%

30%

32%

54%

33%

65%

27%

31%

51%

38%

49%

42%

32%

37%

63%

18%

47%

46%

<1%

92%

32%

2%

90%

45%

5%

93%

35%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

5%

7%

3%

4%

6%

5%

4%

4%

5%

10%

2%

4%

6%

4%

6%

3%

4%

3%

8%

5%

4%

4%

6%

5%

4%

6%

3%

4%

5%

2%

3%

45%

2%

4%

6%

2%

3%

13%

MARGIN Harris +4 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

The Ukraine-Russia war

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Kamala Harris

43%

36%

50%

47%

46%

43%

42%

41%

72%

40%

41%

41%

52%

59%

33%

60%

27%

59%

48%

40%

51%

39%

46%

54%

53%

26%

68%

44%

43%

88%

1%

21%

87%

5%

40%

85%

1%

39%

Donald Trump

51%

58%

44%

43%

47%

51%

55%

56%

21%

49%

49%

56%

38%

36%

60%

37%

69%

35%

41%

55%

44%

55%

46%

37%

42%

69%

23%

51%

51%

5%

96%

43%

8%

92%

52%

9%

96%

48%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

6%

6%

6%

10%

7%

5%

3%

4%

8%

11%

10%

4%

10%

5%

7%

3%

4%

6%

11%

5%

5%

6%

8%

10%

5%

5%

9%

5%

6%

6%

2%

36%

5%

3%

8%

7%

2%

13%

MARGIN Trump +7 Calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Do you think Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris represents change, or more of the same?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Major change

25%

20%

29%

25%

21%

21%

33%

21%

48%

25%

26%

21%

34%

24%

25%

22%

21%

32%

36%

24%

25%

26%

24%

26%

29%

18%

39%

25%

25%

44%

7%

4%

51%

8%

17%

41%

8%

24%

Minor change

20%

19%

21%

24%

26%

22%

11%

19%

29%

21%

17%

19%

23%

28%

15%

29%

12%

24%

23%

17%

22%

19%

23%

26%

23%

12%

25%

17%

20%

36%

4%

14%

32%

7%

22%

36%

3%

19%

More of the same

52%

58%

46%

48%

51%

54%

50%

56%

21%

47%

55%

56%

40%

44%

57%

45%

65%

42%

38%

58%

49%

54%

46%

43%

45%

65%

34%

55%

52%

15%

87%

64%

14%

83%

58%

19%

87%

51%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

4%

3%

4%

3%

2%

3%

6%

3%

1%

7%

2%

3%

3%

4%

3%

4%

3%

3%

4%

2%

5%

2%

7%

4%

3%

4%

2%

3%

4%

4%

2%

18%

4%

3%

2%

4%

2%

6%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Do you think Donald Trump represents change, or more of the same?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Major change

49%

54%

44%

29%

49%

54%

52%

57%

23%

36%

33%

57%

30%

45%

51%

49%

63%

37%

26%

53%

40%

55%

45%

38%

44%

61%

33%

49%

49%

24%

76%

28%

23%

77%

45%

27%

80%

33%

Minor change

10%

11%

9%

19%

11%

8%

7%

8%

8%

13%

21%

8%

13%

9%

10%

7%

8%

12%

14%

11%

10%

9%

10%

13%

8%

10%

7%

9%

10%

5%

14%

18%

6%

10%

14%

7%

11%

14%

More of the same

38%

32%

43%

51%

37%

36%

37%

32%

68%

49%

41%

32%

54%

43%

35%

42%

25%

48%

58%

33%

47%

33%

41%

46%

44%

26%

55%

38%

38%

67%

9%

39%

67%

11%

38%

63%

7%

47%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

3%

3%

2%

3%

3%

4%

2%

<.5%

3%

6%

2%

3%

3%

3%

2%

3%

3%

2%

2%

4%

3%

4%

4%

3%

3%

6%

3%

3%

3%

2%

15%

4%

2%

2%

3%

2%

6%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Would you be more likely to describe electing Donald Trump as president this November as a safe choice for the country or a risky choice for the country?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Safe choice

46%

51%

41%

32%

40%

47%

53%

52%

15%

33%

40%

52%

28%

32%

54%

35%

64%

24%

31%

52%

41%

49%

38%

31%

37%

65%

18%

48%

46%

<1%

93%

21%

3%

90%

44%

5%

94%

37%

Risky choice

52%

46%

58%

65%

58%

51%

47%

47%

82%

59%

59%

47%

67%

66%

43%

65%

34%

72%

65%

46%

58%

49%

57%

65%

61%

34%

81%

50%

52%

98%

5%

59%

96%

9%

52%

94%

5%

54%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

2%

3%

2%

3%

2%

3%

<1%

<1%

3%

7%

2%

<1%

4%

2%

2%

<.5%

1%

4%

4%

1%

1%

2%

4%

4%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

<1%

2%

19%

<.5%

<1%

4%

1%

<1%

9%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Would you be more likely to describe electing Kamala Harris as president this November as a safe choice for the country or a risky choice for the country?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Safe choice

47%

41%

53%

61%

47%

47%

45%

43%

72%

56%

45%

43%

59%

63%

38%

63%

30%

65%

56%

44%

55%

44%

49%

59%

56%

29%

74%

46%

47%

95%

3%

16%

93%

7%

45%

90%

3%

47%

Risky choice

51%

56%

45%

36%

51%

51%

55%

56%

24%

38%

54%

56%

37%

36%

60%

37%

69%

33%

39%

55%

43%

55%

46%

38%

41%

69%

25%

53%

51%

4%

96%

65%

6%

93%

52%

8%

96%

46%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

<1%

<1%

4%

6%

1%

<1%

4%

2%

2%

<.5%

1%

2%

5%

1%

2%

1%

5%

3%

2%

2%

<.5%

1%

2%

1%

1%

19%

<1%

<.5%

3%

2%

<.5%

7%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Do you think Donald Trump is too conservative, not conservative enough, or not too far either way?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Too conservative

35%

31%

38%

60%

41%

32%

25%

35%

37%

42%

32%

35%

37%

44%

28%

46%

27%

44%

33%

28%

39%

32%

41%

41%

40%

25%

52%

34%

35%

57%

14%

22%

58%

16%

33%

53%

14%

37%

Not conservative enough

14%

15%

12%

9%

13%

12%

19%

11%

26%

19%

6%

11%

18%

11%

16%

9%

13%

16%

19%

13%

9%

17%

14%

14%

16%

12%

12%

9%

14%

14%

13%

12%

15%

12%

11%

13%

14%

15%

Not too far either way

44%

47%

42%

29%

42%

49%

45%

47%

32%

35%

58%

47%

40%

39%

48%

39%

51%

34%

44%

52%

44%

46%

36%

37%

38%

57%

30%

50%

44%

21%

68%

49%

20%

67%

47%

25%

66%

42%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

7%

7%

7%

2%

4%

7%

12%

7%

6%

4%

4%

7%

5%

6%

7%

6%

8%

6%

4%

7%

8%

5%

9%

8%

7%

7%

6%

7%

7%

8%

5%

17%

7%

5%

8%

9%

5%

6%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Do you think Kamala Harris is too liberal or progressive, not liberal or progressive enough, or not too far either way?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Too liberal or progressive

47%

52%

42%

31%

42%

49%

52%

51%

23%

37%

48%

51%

35%

38%

52%

39%

59%

35%

35%

54%

41%

52%

37%

33%

41%

62%

24%

50%

47%

11%

82%

44%

11%

80%

51%

15%

85%

36%

Not liberal or progressive enough

6%

5%

7%

11%

11%

5%

2%

6%

6%

9%

5%

6%

7%

8%

5%

7%

4%

9%

6%

4%

6%

6%

8%

11%

5%

4%

17%

8%

6%

9%

3%

11%

8%

2%

6%

8%

2%

10%

Not too far either way

42%

37%

47%

53%

43%

42%

39%

39%

64%

44%

45%

39%

52%

52%

36%

52%

30%

54%

50%

39%

47%

38%

47%

50%

50%

28%

55%

39%

42%

76%

10%

30%

76%

12%

39%

74%

8%

44%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

5%

5%

5%

4%

4%

4%

7%

4%

6%

9%

2%

4%

6%

2%

7%

2%

6%

2%

9%

3%

6%

4%

8%

7%

4%

6%

4%

3%

5%

4%

5%

16%

4%

6%

3%

3%

5%

10%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Do you feel like you still need to learn more about Donald Trump, or do you pretty much already know what you need to know?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Feel like you need to learn more about Donald Trump

10%

11%

8%

21%

14%

9%

4%

7%

10%

23%

15%

7%

16%

8%

12%

5%

9%

14%

17%

7%

6%

11%

14%

13%

9%

9%

12%

6%

10%

6%

11%

36%

6%

8%

13%

6%

8%

28%

Pretty much already know what you need to know about Donald Trump

89%

88%

91%

78%

86%

91%

96%

92%

89%

76%

85%

92%

83%

92%

88%

95%

90%

85%

82%

93%

93%

88%

86%

87%

90%

90%

87%

93%

89%

94%

88%

62%

94%

91%

86%

94%

91%

71%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

<1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

1%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Do you feel like you still need to learn more about Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, or do you pretty much already know what you need to know?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Feel like you need to learn more about Kamala Harris

25%

24%

26%

45%

32%

24%

12%

19%

32%

42%

44%

19%

38%

26%

25%

19%

19%

44%

35%

21%

29%

24%

26%

28%

26%

21%

35%

23%

25%

28%

19%

48%

25%

14%

34%

25%

17%

46%

Pretty much already know what you need to know about Kamala Harris

74%

76%

73%

54%

68%

75%

87%

80%

68%

56%

56%

80%

60%

73%

75%

80%

80%

54%

64%

78%

69%

75%

74%

72%

73%

78%

64%

76%

74%

71%

80%

48%

75%

84%

65%

75%

82%

53%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

<.5%

1%

4%

<.5%

2%

1%

<.5%

2%

<1%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

(If watched or heard about the debate) Do you feel like you learned a lot about Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris at the debate, some about Kamala Harris, not much or nothing at all?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

A lot

18%

16%

21%

15%

17%

17%

24%

16%

39%

18%

16%

16%

26%

17%

19%

15%

17%

25%

26%

15%

20%

22%

14%

20%

20%

16%

29%

22%

18%

29%

8%

5%

34%

9%

12%

29%

8%

16%

Some

31%

28%

35%

43%

33%

32%

26%

30%

39%

38%

27%

30%

35%

37%

27%

39%

23%

34%

36%

28%

37%

29%

34%

38%

34%

24%

39%

33%

31%

49%

13%

29%

45%

17%

33%

47%

13%

39%

Not much

22%

23%

21%

26%

23%

20%

21%

23%

12%

20%

28%

23%

19%

20%

23%

21%

25%

19%

19%

22%

20%

18%

29%

24%

20%

22%

18%

18%

22%

15%

28%

32%

15%

27%

23%

16%

27%

23%

Nothing at all

25%

30%

20%

13%

25%

29%

25%

27%

10%

20%

27%

27%

18%

23%

26%

23%

31%

20%

17%

30%

19%

28%

21%

16%

24%

32%

12%

24%

25%

4%

47%

19%

3%

43%

29%

6%

48%

16%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

3%

3%

4%

3%

3%

3%

4%

4%

<1%

4%

2%

4%

2%

3%

4%

2%

4%

2%

2%

5%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

6%

2%

3%

3%

2%

3%

14%

2%

4%

4%

2%

4%

6%

NET A lot/Some

50%

44%

55%

57%

50%

49%

50%

46%

78%

56%

43%

46%

61%

54%

47%

54%

40%

59%

62%

43%

57%

51%

48%

58%

54%

40%

68%

55%

49%

79%

22%

34%

79%

26%

45%

76%

21%

55%

NET Not much/Nothing

47%

53%

41%

39%

47%

49%

46%

51%

22%

40%

55%

51%

37%

43%

49%

44%

55%

38%

36%

52%

39%

46%

50%

40%

44%

55%

30%

42%

47%

19%

75%

52%

19%

70%

51%

22%

75%

39%

Number of respondents

1,829

840

961

319

457

579

398

1,241

243

148

141

1,241

532

955

858

679

554

250

280

241

973

366

249

548

760

521

278

513

1,038

1,005

741

83

691

504

526

895

599

277

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

21%

33%

30%

69%

11%

9%

8%

69%

28%

41%

58%

29%

39%

11%

16%

22%

21%

34%

24%

20%

45%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

48%

47%

5%

32%

31%

31%

44%

41%

11%

(If watched or heard about the debate) Do you feel like you learned a lot about Donald Trump at the debate, some about Donald Trump, not much or nothing at all?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

A lot

11%

10%

11%

10%

5%

11%

13%

9%

17%

11%

15%

9%

14%

9%

12%

8%

9%

11%

16%

10%

8%

15%

7%

11%

9%

13%

12%

13%

10%

10%

12%

6%

12%

14%

5%

8%

12%

14%

Some

22%

18%

26%

28%

20%

19%

23%

22%

17%

24%

27%

22%

22%

16%

26%

14%

26%

21%

23%

20%

15%

24%

27%

24%

21%

22%

15%

20%

22%

13%

30%

33%

12%

34%

19%

13%

30%

28%

Not much

25%

27%

22%

35%

29%

23%

20%

26%

20%

26%

23%

26%

23%

24%

26%

25%

27%

21%

24%

26%

25%

25%

24%

21%

23%

29%

25%

23%

25%

19%

32%

17%

19%

32%

26%

19%

31%

29%

Nothing at all

40%

43%

37%

23%

44%

44%

39%

41%

44%

36%

33%

41%

38%

49%

33%

51%

34%

45%

34%

42%

46%

34%

40%

42%

44%

32%

46%

40%

40%

56%

23%

35%

55%

18%

46%

58%

24%

25%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

3%

2%

4%

3%

2%

3%

4%

3%

3%

3%

2%

3%

3%

2%

4%

2%

4%

2%

3%

3%

6%

3%

1%

1%

3%

5%

1%

3%

3%

2%

3%

9%

2%

2%

5%

2%

4%

4%

NET A lot/Some

32%

28%

36%

38%

25%

30%

36%

30%

34%

35%

42%

30%

36%

25%

37%

22%

36%

32%

40%

30%

23%

38%

34%

35%

29%

35%

28%

33%

32%

22%

42%

39%

24%

48%

24%

21%

42%

42%

NET Not much/Nothing

64%

69%

60%

58%

72%

67%

60%

67%

64%

62%

55%

67%

61%

73%

59%

76%

60%

67%

57%

67%

71%

58%

65%

64%

68%

61%

71%

64%

64%

75%

55%

52%

74%

49%

72%

77%

55%

54%

Number of respondents

1,829

840

961

319

457

579

398

1,241

243

148

141

1,241

532

955

858

679

554

250

280

241

973

366

249

548

760

521

278

513

1,038

1,005

741

83

691

504

526

895

599

277

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

52%

13%

21%

33%

30%

69%

11%

9%

8%

69%

28%

41%

58%

29%

39%

11%

16%

22%

21%

34%

24%

20%

45%

35%

<.5%

4%

96%

48%

47%

5%

32%

31%

31%

44%

41%

11%

If Donald Trump wins in November, which would come closer to your view, even if neither was exactly right?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Donald Trump will try to pass a law restricting access to legal abortions nationwide

48%

40%

56%

57%

58%

48%

39%

45%

72%

54%

39%

45%

57%

56%

43%

56%

39%

61%

54%

38%

51%

50%

53%

57%

53%

38%

71%

47%

48%

81%

18%

20%

81%

22%

43%

79%

17%

45%

Donald Trump will NOT try to pass a law restricting access to legal abortions nationwide

42%

48%

37%

32%

37%

44%

47%

45%

24%

34%

54%

45%

36%

39%

44%

41%

48%

36%

36%

49%

40%

41%

38%

33%

38%

52%

27%

47%

42%

14%

70%

47%

14%

67%

45%

16%

70%

41%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

10%

12%

8%

12%

5%

8%

13%

9%

4%

12%

6%

9%

8%

5%

13%

4%

13%

3%

10%

13%

9%

9%

9%

10%

9%

10%

2%

7%

10%

5%

12%

33%

6%

11%

11%

5%

13%

14%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:

Will bring about the right kind of change

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

31%

23%

39%

31%

27%

31%

37%

28%

64%

34%

20%

28%

41%

39%

26%

39%

20%

44%

40%

29%

35%

32%

29%

41%

37%

18%

50%

33%

31%

64%

1%

2%

71%

3%

21%

62%

2%

24%

Somewhat well

18%

18%

19%

35%

23%

16%

10%

17%

16%

24%

29%

17%

22%

22%

16%

23%

13%

20%

24%

17%

20%

15%

23%

21%

20%

15%

26%

15%

18%

32%

4%

23%

23%

5%

27%

29%

3%

30%

Not too well

9%

10%

7%

14%

11%

8%

4%

7%

6%

15%

17%

7%

12%

9%

8%

6%

8%

15%

10%

8%

8%

9%

9%

8%

9%

8%

11%

10%

8%

3%

14%

15%

2%

11%

12%

4%

12%

12%

Not at all well

40%

46%

35%

19%

39%

43%

48%

47%

13%

25%

34%

47%

23%

29%

48%

31%

58%

21%

24%

45%

34%

43%

37%

28%

32%

57%

11%

40%

41%

<1%

79%

46%

3%

79%

40%

4%

82%

27%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

3%

<1%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

1%

1%

3%

<.5%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

<.5%

2%

2%

3%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

2%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

13%

1%

2%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

7%

NET Well

49%

41%

57%

65%

50%

47%

47%

45%

79%

58%

49%

45%

64%

61%

42%

61%

33%

64%

64%

46%

55%

46%

52%

62%

57%

33%

76%

48%

49%

96%

6%

26%

94%

9%

47%

91%

5%

54%

NET Not well

49%

56%

42%

33%

50%

51%

52%

54%

19%

39%

51%

54%

35%

37%

57%

37%

66%

36%

34%

52%

43%

52%

47%

36%

42%

66%

22%

51%

49%

3%

93%

61%

5%

90%

52%

8%

94%

39%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Has the temperament to be an effective president

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

41%

35%

47%

45%

44%

39%

41%

40%

66%

43%

27%

40%

47%

53%

33%

54%

30%

55%

43%

35%

47%

40%

43%

51%

50%

24%

70%

41%

41%

84%

2%

15%

86%

5%

34%

80%

3%

35%

Somewhat well

12%

14%

11%

26%

14%

12%

6%

9%

13%

24%

31%

9%

21%

14%

12%

11%

8%

21%

21%

12%

12%

11%

14%

15%

12%

11%

13%

14%

12%

13%

10%

23%

8%

8%

22%

13%

8%

24%

Not too well

12%

15%

9%

12%

12%

13%

11%

13%

6%

9%

14%

13%

9%

8%

14%

8%

16%

9%

9%

15%

11%

10%

12%

7%

12%

14%

5%

10%

12%

1%

21%

21%

2%

16%

18%

3%

20%

15%

Not at all well

32%

34%

30%

16%

28%

34%

39%

37%

10%

21%

29%

37%

19%

24%

38%

26%

45%

15%

21%

35%

27%

36%

28%

24%

24%

47%

10%

33%

32%

<.5%

64%

29%

2%

68%

27%

3%

67%

20%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

2%

3%

2%

5%

4%

<.5%

2%

3%

1%

3%

<1%

2%

<.5%

5%

4%

3%

2%

2%

3%

2%

3%

2%

1%

3%

2%

2%

12%

3%

3%

<.5%

1%

2%

6%

NET Well

54%

49%

58%

71%

59%

51%

47%

49%

78%

67%

57%

49%

69%

67%

45%

65%

37%

76%

64%

47%

60%

52%

58%

66%

62%

36%

83%

55%

53%

97%

12%

38%

94%

13%

56%

93%

11%

58%

NET Not well

44%

49%

39%

28%

40%

47%

50%

50%

16%

30%

42%

50%

28%

32%

52%

34%

60%

24%

31%

49%

37%

46%

41%

32%

36%

61%

15%

43%

44%

1%

86%

50%

4%

84%

44%

5%

87%

35%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Is intelligent

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

50%

43%

57%

61%

50%

48%

50%

46%

79%

59%

47%

46%

63%

63%

42%

63%

34%

66%

62%

45%

56%

48%

54%

64%

59%

32%

79%

51%

50%

92%

12%

28%

91%

12%

50%

89%

10%

47%

Somewhat well

19%

21%

17%

21%

24%

20%

14%

20%

11%

13%

31%

20%

17%

17%

20%

17%

23%

20%

15%

17%

22%

17%

20%

15%

18%

23%

15%

23%

19%

7%

28%

40%

6%

29%

22%

7%

28%

29%

Not too well

8%

8%

7%

5%

4%

10%

9%

9%

4%

7%

4%

9%

5%

7%

8%

7%

10%

5%

6%

10%

4%

7%

8%

3%

6%

12%

4%

9%

8%

<1%

15%

3%

1%

14%

8%

<1%

15%

6%

Not at all well

21%

25%

18%

12%

22%

19%

27%

24%

5%

17%

19%

24%

13%

12%

28%

12%

33%

9%

15%

26%

14%

26%

16%

16%

15%

32%

2%

16%

22%

<.5%

43%

19%

<1%

43%

19%

2%

44%

14%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

<.5%

<1%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

4%

0%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

3%

1%

2%

3%

1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

2%

<1%

2%

9%

<1%

2%

<1%

<.5%

2%

3%

NET Well

69%

65%

74%

82%

74%

68%

63%

66%

91%

72%

78%

66%

80%

80%

62%

80%

56%

86%

77%

63%

79%

65%

74%

78%

77%

54%

93%

74%

69%

99%

40%

68%

97%

41%

71%

97%

38%

77%

NET Not well

29%

33%

25%

18%

26%

30%

36%

33%

9%

24%

22%

33%

18%

19%

36%

19%

42%

14%

21%

36%

19%

34%

24%

19%

22%

44%

6%

25%

29%

<1%

58%

23%

2%

57%

28%

3%

60%

21%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Cares about people like you

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

38%

31%

43%

39%

36%

37%

41%

35%

64%

39%

26%

35%

45%

47%

31%

49%

26%

47%

44%

33%

45%

37%

36%

45%

47%

22%

56%

38%

37%

76%

3%

10%

80%

6%

29%

73%

2%

34%

Somewhat well

14%

14%

14%

30%

14%

13%

7%

11%

18%

23%

25%

11%

21%

15%

13%

13%

10%

23%

21%

16%

14%

11%

16%

19%

14%

12%

21%

13%

14%

19%

9%

14%

14%

7%

21%

19%

6%

22%

Not too well

9%

11%

8%

10%

13%

9%

6%

8%

6%

12%

16%

8%

11%

8%

9%

8%

8%

8%

13%

9%

8%

8%

12%

6%

10%

10%

9%

14%

9%

2%

15%

17%

2%

16%

10%

3%

13%

15%

Not at all well

38%

41%

34%

20%

36%

39%

44%

44%

10%

23%

33%

44%

21%

28%

44%

29%

55%

22%

20%

40%

31%

42%

34%

27%

28%

55%

14%

34%

38%

2%

72%

49%

3%

71%

37%

4%

76%

24%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

3%

<1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

<1%

2%

<1%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

<.5%

2%

2%

1%

1%

10%

<1%

<1%

2%

<1%

2%

4%

NET Well

52%

46%

57%

69%

50%

51%

48%

47%

82%

62%

50%

47%

66%

63%

45%

62%

36%

69%

65%

49%

59%

48%

52%

65%

60%

33%

76%

51%

52%

95%

11%

24%

94%

12%

50%

92%

9%

56%

NET Not well

47%

52%

41%

31%

49%

48%

50%

52%

16%

35%

49%

52%

32%

36%

54%

37%

62%

30%

33%

49%

38%

51%

46%

34%

38%

65%

23%

47%

47%

4%

87%

66%

5%

87%

48%

7%

90%

40%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Is respected by foreign leaders

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

27%

22%

31%

21%

24%

27%

31%

26%

39%

26%

21%

26%

29%

34%

22%

35%

20%

34%

27%

23%

29%

28%

26%

35%

29%

19%

44%

28%

26%

52%

3%

7%

56%

6%

19%

52%

3%

21%

Somewhat well

20%

19%

21%

40%

24%

17%

12%

17%

26%

29%

30%

17%

28%

26%

17%

25%

12%

30%

28%

18%

24%

15%

25%

26%

23%

13%

27%

19%

20%

34%

6%

23%

30%

6%

26%

33%

4%

28%

Not too well

12%

16%

9%

16%

14%

14%

8%

13%

11%

12%

13%

13%

12%

9%

14%

9%

15%

11%

13%

14%

12%

12%

11%

8%

13%

14%

8%

13%

12%

4%

20%

21%

4%

18%

15%

4%

19%

21%

Not at all well

34%

36%

33%

21%

33%

34%

41%

39%

11%

26%

31%

39%

21%

26%

40%

28%

47%

19%

23%

35%

29%

39%

31%

24%

27%

49%

15%

35%

35%

2%

68%

24%

3%

67%

33%

3%

72%

19%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

6%

7%

6%

3%

5%

7%

8%

5%

13%

7%

5%

5%

9%

6%

7%

4%

5%

6%

10%

9%

6%

5%

6%

7%

7%

5%

7%

6%

6%

8%

2%

25%

7%

3%

7%

7%

2%

11%

NET Well

47%

41%

52%

60%

48%

44%

43%

43%

65%

55%

51%

43%

58%

59%

39%

59%

32%

64%

54%

42%

53%

43%

51%

61%

52%

32%

71%

47%

47%

86%

9%

30%

86%

12%

45%

85%

7%

49%

NET Not well

47%

52%

42%

37%

48%

48%

49%

52%

22%

38%

44%

52%

34%

35%

54%

37%

62%

30%

36%

49%

41%

51%

43%

32%

41%

63%

22%

48%

47%

6%

88%

45%

7%

85%

48%

8%

91%

40%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Is extreme

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

34%

40%

30%

19%

28%

35%

44%

38%

22%

22%

36%

38%

26%

26%

39%

28%

44%

22%

28%

39%

25%

37%

34%

28%

29%

45%

17%

35%

34%

9%

60%

30%

12%

60%

30%

11%

63%

21%

Somewhat well

12%

13%

12%

16%

15%

10%

10%

11%

14%

16%

13%

11%

15%

10%

13%

9%

12%

14%

15%

16%

12%

12%

9%

12%

10%

15%

14%

15%

12%

10%

13%

25%

10%

12%

14%

10%

11%

23%

Not too well

19%

17%

20%

28%

25%

18%

13%

18%

23%

21%

25%

18%

23%

20%

18%

19%

17%

23%

22%

16%

27%

18%

17%

20%

22%

14%

20%

17%

19%

27%

11%

19%

22%

10%

24%

26%

10%

24%

Not at all well

30%

26%

34%

35%

31%

32%

26%

30%

31%

33%

26%

30%

30%

39%

24%

41%

23%

36%

27%

24%

32%

29%

34%

36%

35%

21%

47%

30%

30%

50%

12%

10%

51%

12%

29%

50%

11%

24%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

5%

5%

5%

3%

2%

4%

7%

4%

10%

8%

<1%

4%

7%

4%

5%

3%

4%

5%

7%

4%

5%

4%

6%

5%

5%

5%

2%

3%

5%

3%

5%

16%

4%

5%

3%

3%

4%

8%

NET Well

46%

53%

41%

35%

43%

46%

54%

49%

36%

39%

49%

49%

40%

36%

53%

37%

56%

35%

44%

55%

37%

49%

43%

39%

38%

61%

32%

50%

46%

19%

73%

55%

22%

73%

44%

21%

75%

44%

NET Not well

49%

43%

54%

62%

55%

51%

39%

48%

54%

53%

51%

48%

53%

60%

42%

60%

40%

60%

49%

41%

58%

47%

51%

56%

57%

35%

66%

47%

49%

77%

23%

29%

73%

22%

53%

76%

21%

48%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Says what she believes

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

35%

27%

43%

29%

36%

35%

40%

33%

63%

37%

24%

33%

43%

41%

32%

41%

27%

42%

44%

31%

39%

37%

33%

41%

42%

23%

55%

38%

35%

68%

5%

7%

73%

9%

25%

67%

6%

27%

Somewhat well

21%

23%

20%

45%

24%

20%

11%

20%

18%

28%

27%

20%

24%

26%

18%

25%

16%

28%

22%

20%

24%

18%

26%

25%

22%

19%

25%

19%

21%

28%

14%

29%

23%

13%

28%

25%

13%

32%

Not too well

11%

15%

7%

15%

14%

11%

8%

11%

9%

12%

21%

11%

13%

10%

13%

9%

12%

11%

14%

13%

8%

13%

11%

8%

13%

12%

6%

10%

11%

3%

19%

18%

1%

16%

16%

4%

17%

19%

Not at all well

30%

32%

28%

11%

25%

33%

37%

34%

9%

18%

27%

34%

17%

22%

35%

23%

43%

19%

16%

34%

26%

31%

28%

21%

23%

44%

12%

30%

30%

<.5%

58%

36%

2%

57%

29%

3%

61%

19%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

3%

2%

<.5%

2%

2%

3%

2%

<1%

5%

<.5%

2%

2%

2%

3%

1%

2%

<.5%

3%

3%

4%

2%

2%

5%

1%

3%

2%

3%

2%

<1%

3%

10%

<1%

5%

<1%

1%

4%

3%

NET Well

56%

50%

63%

74%

60%

54%

52%

53%

82%

65%

51%

53%

67%

66%

50%

67%

43%

70%

66%

51%

62%

55%

59%

66%

63%

42%

80%

57%

56%

96%

19%

36%

96%

22%

53%

92%

19%

59%

NET Not well

41%

47%

35%

26%

39%

44%

45%

45%

18%

30%

49%

45%

30%

32%

47%

32%

55%

30%

30%

47%

34%

43%

39%

29%

35%

55%

18%

40%

41%

3%

77%

54%

4%

73%

46%

7%

78%

38%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:

Will bring about the right kind of change

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

38%

41%

35%

18%

32%

41%

45%

43%

15%

30%

29%

43%

24%

26%

46%

28%

55%

19%

26%

38%

33%

43%

34%

26%

31%

54%

13%

37%

38%

<.5%

78%

13%

2%

79%

32%

4%

81%

23%

Somewhat well

13%

17%

10%

23%

17%

10%

10%

12%

10%

17%

22%

12%

15%

10%

15%

8%

14%

14%

16%

19%

10%

11%

12%

10%

12%

16%

10%

15%

13%

4%

19%

36%

5%

14%

19%

5%

16%

26%

Not too well

6%

6%

6%

13%

7%

4%

3%

4%

11%

11%

11%

4%

11%

5%

7%

5%

3%

7%

14%

7%

8%

4%

6%

9%

7%

3%

11%

7%

6%

10%

1%

13%

7%

2%

9%

8%

1%

12%

Not at all well

42%

35%

48%

44%

44%

43%

40%

40%

63%

40%

38%

40%

48%

58%

32%

58%

28%

59%

41%

36%

46%

41%

46%

52%

50%

26%

63%

41%

42%

85%

<1%

29%

84%

4%

39%

82%

1%

36%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

<1%

1%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

<1%

2%

3%

<.5%

<1%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

2%

<1%

2%

<.5%

2%

2%

1%

<.5%

3%

1%

1%

<1%

<.5%

10%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

1%

<.5%

2%

NET Well

51%

58%

44%

41%

49%

51%

55%

55%

24%

46%

51%

55%

39%

36%

61%

36%

69%

33%

43%

57%

43%

54%

46%

36%

42%

70%

23%

52%

51%

4%

97%

49%

7%

93%

51%

8%

97%

50%

NET Not well

48%

41%

54%

57%

51%

48%

44%

44%

74%

51%

49%

44%

59%

63%

38%

63%

31%

66%

55%

42%

55%

45%

52%

62%

57%

30%

74%

47%

48%

95%

2%

42%

92%

6%

48%

91%

2%

48%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Has the temperament to be an effective president

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

34%

38%

30%

20%

28%

32%

43%

37%

11%

29%

33%

37%

23%

20%

43%

21%

49%

15%

28%

37%

29%

37%

30%

24%

27%

48%

14%

32%

34%

<1%

68%

21%

2%

69%

28%

3%

70%

23%

Somewhat well

16%

19%

14%

24%

17%

16%

12%

16%

16%

18%

14%

16%

17%

14%

18%

14%

18%

15%

17%

17%

16%

17%

13%

13%

14%

20%

10%

18%

16%

5%

26%

29%

7%

20%

22%

6%

24%

24%

Not too well

8%

9%

7%

16%

13%

5%

5%

6%

9%

9%

17%

6%

11%

8%

8%

7%

6%

9%

12%

8%

8%

6%

11%

8%

10%

6%

11%

8%

8%

11%

4%

17%

8%

5%

11%

8%

4%

17%

Not at all well

41%

34%

49%

40%

43%

44%

40%

40%

60%

41%

36%

40%

47%

58%

31%

59%

27%

60%

39%

37%

46%

40%

45%

52%

49%

26%

65%

41%

41%

83%

2%

27%

82%

5%

38%

82%

2%

34%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

3%

3%

0%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

3%

<1%

1%

<.5%

1%

3%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

6%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

2%

NET Well

50%

56%

44%

44%

45%

49%

55%

54%

28%

47%

47%

54%

40%

34%

60%

35%

67%

30%

45%

55%

44%

54%

43%

38%

41%

68%

24%

50%

50%

5%

94%

49%

9%

89%

50%

9%

94%

47%

NET Not well

50%

43%

56%

56%

55%

49%

45%

46%

69%

50%

53%

46%

58%

66%

39%

65%

33%

69%

52%

45%

54%

46%

55%

60%

59%

32%

76%

50%

49%

94%

6%

44%

90%

10%

50%

90%

6%

51%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Is intelligent

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

39%

42%

36%

22%

30%

38%

51%

43%

20%

29%

34%

43%

27%

27%

47%

27%

55%

22%

29%

40%

34%

44%

37%

27%

31%

56%

19%

37%

39%

5%

75%

20%

6%

77%

33%

8%

77%

27%

Somewhat well

21%

25%

17%

33%

29%

17%

14%

20%

17%

25%

28%

20%

23%

21%

21%

21%

19%

21%

24%

24%

21%

19%

20%

20%

22%

19%

22%

23%

21%

17%

21%

48%

17%

17%

29%

15%

20%

33%

Not too well

11%

11%

11%

23%

9%

11%

6%

10%

12%

17%

11%

10%

14%

13%

9%

13%

7%

11%

15%

8%

12%

8%

15%

16%

12%

6%

16%

11%

10%

19%

1%

13%

15%

4%

13%

17%

1%

18%

Not at all well

28%

22%

34%

21%

31%

32%

28%

26%

49%

26%

28%

26%

35%

40%

21%

38%

18%

45%

29%

27%

32%

28%

27%

33%

35%

17%

42%

28%

28%

58%

1%

12%

61%

1%

24%

58%

<1%

20%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

1%

3%

0%

<1%

1%

<1%

2%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

4%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

1%

<1%

6%

1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

2%

NET Well

60%

66%

54%

55%

59%

55%

65%

63%

37%

54%

62%

63%

50%

47%

68%

48%

74%

43%

53%

63%

54%

63%

57%

47%

53%

76%

41%

60%

60%

21%

97%

69%

23%

94%

62%

24%

97%

60%

NET Not well

39%

32%

45%

44%

40%

42%

34%

36%

61%

44%

38%

36%

49%

52%

31%

52%

25%

57%

44%

36%

45%

36%

41%

49%

47%

23%

58%

39%

39%

77%

2%

25%

76%

5%

37%

75%

2%

38%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Cares about people like you

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

35%

36%

34%

19%

26%

37%

44%

40%

12%

31%

30%

40%

24%

25%

42%

26%

49%

19%

26%

38%

30%

39%

31%

25%

27%

50%

10%

33%

35%

<1%

71%

18%

2%

75%

30%

3%

75%

23%

Somewhat well

13%

18%

9%

23%

17%

11%

9%

15%

4%

10%

20%

15%

10%

10%

15%

10%

18%

10%

10%

15%

13%

13%

13%

8%

13%

16%

13%

17%

13%

2%

23%

23%

3%

18%

19%

2%

21%

26%

Not too well

8%

9%

7%

17%

11%

7%

4%

6%

12%

11%

11%

6%

11%

8%

8%

7%

5%

8%

13%

9%

7%

7%

9%

11%

8%

6%

9%

8%

8%

12%

3%

20%

10%

2%

11%

12%

2%

11%

Not at all well

42%

35%

49%

41%

46%

42%

42%

39%

71%

45%

40%

39%

53%

57%

33%

56%

27%

62%

48%

37%

49%

40%

45%

52%

50%

27%

67%

41%

42%

84%

2%

31%

84%

4%

40%

81%

2%

36%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

1%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

3%

<1%

<1%

1%

4%

<.5%

<1%

2%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

2%

<1%

2%

1%

1%

3%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

<1%

<1%

9%

1%

1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

3%

NET Well

48%

55%

42%

42%

44%

48%

53%

54%

16%

40%

50%

54%

34%

35%

57%

36%

67%

29%

37%

53%

43%

51%

44%

34%

41%

67%

23%

51%

48%

3%

95%

41%

5%

93%

49%

5%

96%

49%

NET Not well

50%

44%

56%

58%

56%

49%

46%

45%

83%

56%

50%

45%

65%

65%

41%

63%

32%

71%

61%

46%

55%

47%

54%

63%

58%

33%

77%

49%

50%

96%

4%

51%

94%

6%

51%

94%

3%

47%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Is respected by foreign leaders

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

40%

47%

34%

27%

36%

40%

47%

43%

22%

37%

40%

43%

32%

25%

50%

26%

56%

22%

38%

42%

31%

47%

37%

30%

32%

56%

17%

37%

41%

4%

78%

31%

5%

78%

38%

6%

80%

34%

Somewhat well

15%

14%

15%

28%

19%

12%

9%

14%

16%

17%

16%

14%

17%

15%

14%

14%

13%

17%

17%

17%

16%

13%

13%

13%

14%

16%

18%

20%

14%

11%

18%

23%

11%

15%

19%

10%

17%

22%

Not too well

10%

8%

11%

18%

11%

10%

6%

9%

8%

14%

16%

9%

12%

13%

8%

13%

7%

14%

11%

10%

11%

7%

13%

12%

10%

8%

15%

8%

10%

17%

2%

16%

14%

3%

13%

16%

<.5%

16%

Not at all well

33%

29%

38%

26%

33%

34%

38%

33%

52%

28%

27%

33%

37%

46%

25%

47%

23%

46%

31%

28%

39%

31%

36%

41%

41%

20%

49%

33%

33%

67%

2%

17%

68%

3%

29%

66%

1%

24%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

<.5%

1%

3%

2%

1%

2%

4%

2%

1%

3%

<1%

3%

<1%

1%

1%

4%

3%

3%

1%

1%

3%

2%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

13%

2%

2%

1%

2%

<1%

5%

NET Well

55%

61%

49%

56%

55%

52%

55%

57%

38%

54%

56%

57%

48%

40%

64%

40%

69%

39%

54%

60%

47%

60%

50%

43%

47%

72%

35%

57%

55%

14%

96%

54%

16%

92%

56%

16%

98%

56%

NET Not well

43%

37%

49%

44%

44%

44%

43%

42%

60%

42%

42%

42%

49%

59%

33%

59%

30%

60%

42%

38%

50%

39%

49%

54%

51%

27%

64%

42%

43%

84%

3%

34%

82%

6%

42%

82%

2%

39%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Is extreme

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

53%

46%

59%

56%

58%

54%

46%

52%

60%

58%

45%

52%

55%

64%

45%

63%

45%

68%

48%

47%

56%

56%

50%

59%

56%

44%

70%

48%

53%

80%

26%

44%

78%

25%

54%

80%

25%

49%

Somewhat well

21%

24%

19%

31%

22%

19%

20%

23%

13%

17%

30%

23%

19%

15%

26%

15%

28%

17%

20%

25%

22%

19%

22%

18%

20%

26%

14%

21%

22%

9%

32%

39%

8%

32%

26%

9%

32%

28%

Not too well

8%

11%

5%

8%

7%

9%

8%

8%

9%

5%

15%

8%

9%

7%

9%

7%

9%

6%

11%

8%

8%

7%

11%

3%

11%

8%

3%

10%

8%

3%

14%

2%

3%

16%

8%

3%

14%

11%

Not at all well

16%

16%

15%

4%

12%

15%

24%

16%

14%

17%

9%

16%

14%

12%

18%

13%

17%

9%

17%

18%

12%

17%

15%

16%

12%

20%

11%

18%

15%

7%

25%

7%

9%

24%

12%

7%

28%

7%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

2%

2%

<1%

<.5%

3%

3%

2%

5%

3%

<.5%

2%

3%

2%

3%

2%

2%

<.5%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

1%

3%

2%

1%

2%

8%

2%

4%

<.5%

<1%

2%

4%

NET Well

74%

71%

78%

87%

81%

73%

66%

75%

73%

75%

75%

75%

74%

79%

71%

78%

72%

85%

67%

72%

78%

74%

73%

77%

76%

70%

84%

69%

74%

89%

58%

83%

86%

57%

79%

90%

56%

77%

NET Not well

24%

27%

20%

12%

19%

24%

31%

24%

23%

22%

24%

24%

23%

19%

27%

20%

26%

15%

28%

26%

19%

24%

25%

20%

22%

28%

14%

28%

24%

10%

39%

9%

12%

39%

20%

10%

42%

18%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Says what he believes

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very well

60%

60%

60%

53%

58%

63%

60%

61%

55%

56%

62%

61%

57%

53%

65%

50%

69%

59%

56%

60%

62%

65%

52%

54%

57%

67%

43%

57%

60%

35%

87%

41%

37%

84%

61%

37%

89%

55%

Somewhat well

14%

16%

13%

25%

18%

13%

9%

14%

10%

20%

18%

14%

16%

15%

13%

16%

12%

14%

17%

17%

14%

12%

15%

14%

15%

13%

20%

18%

14%

17%

11%

17%

16%

13%

14%

14%

10%

24%

Not too well

7%

7%

7%

4%

10%

7%

6%

6%

12%

5%

6%

6%

8%

8%

6%

9%

4%

6%

9%

7%

6%

6%

8%

7%

8%

5%

12%

5%

7%

11%

1%

20%

11%

1%

7%

11%

1%

9%

Not at all well

17%

16%

18%

16%

14%

15%

23%

18%

19%

16%

15%

18%

17%

23%

13%

25%

13%

21%

15%

15%

17%

15%

23%

22%

18%

14%

24%

19%

17%

34%

<.5%

15%

33%

2%

17%

35%

<.5%

10%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

<1%

2%

<1%

<.5%

2%

3%

1%

3%

3%

0%

1%

2%

<1%

2%

<1%

1%

<.5%

3%

<1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

3%

<.5%

7%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

3%

<.5%

2%

NET Well

74%

76%

73%

78%

76%

76%

69%

75%

65%

76%

79%

75%

73%

68%

78%

66%

82%

74%

73%

77%

76%

77%

67%

68%

73%

80%

63%

74%

74%

52%

98%

58%

53%

97%

75%

51%

98%

79%

NET Not well

24%

23%

25%

21%

24%

23%

28%

24%

32%

21%

21%

24%

25%

31%

19%

33%

17%

26%

24%

22%

23%

21%

31%

29%

26%

19%

36%

24%

24%

45%

2%

36%

45%

3%

24%

46%

1%

19%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

What single news source do you turn to most often?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

[VOL] Social media

17%

16%

17%

35%

34%

12%

4%

14%

17%

32%

27%

14%

25%

16%

18%

14%

14%

19%

28%

13%

14%

18%

23%

20%

18%

15%

18%

17%

17%

15%

20%

19%

15%

16%

19%

16%

14%

34%

[VOL] Fox News

14%

15%

14%

5%

8%

16%

21%

17%

8%

4%

15%

17%

8%

9%

17%

10%

22%

9%

8%

15%

14%

16%

9%

7%

12%

21%

7%

15%

14%

2%

27%

13%

1%

31%

11%

2%

30%

4%

[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC

12%

10%

14%

11%

8%

13%

15%

12%

11%

20%

11%

12%

14%

12%

13%

10%

12%

14%

14%

16%

11%

14%

8%

15%

11%

12%

16%

13%

12%

16%

9%

10%

16%

8%

13%

16%

9%

11%

[VOL] CNN

10%

8%

12%

9%

10%

13%

8%

8%

31%

12%

7%

8%

18%

14%

8%

12%

5%

21%

16%

8%

11%

14%

7%

12%

11%

9%

14%

10%

10%

18%

3%

7%

19%

3%

11%

18%

3%

5%

[VOL] National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal

8%

8%

8%

10%

11%

7%

6%

9%

2%

4%

9%

9%

5%

14%

4%

16%

5%

9%

2%

5%

11%

7%

9%

11%

10%

4%

11%

7%

8%

12%

3%

10%

13%

4%

7%

12%

3%

6%

[VOL] MSNBC

4%

4%

4%

1%

2%

5%

7%

3%

11%

3%

1%

3%

6%

6%

3%

5%

2%

7%

5%

5%

7%

2%

3%

3%

5%

3%

3%

6%

4%

8%

<.5%

0%

10%

<1%

1%

7%

<.5%

2%

[VOL] Local broadcast news (includes non-talk, non-public local radio)

4%

3%

4%

1%

3%

4%

5%

3%

8%

2%

3%

3%

4%

2%

5%

2%

5%

1%

6%

3%

3%

4%

5%

7%

2%

4%

7%

3%

4%

4%

4%

3%

3%

4%

4%

4%

3%

3%

[VOL] Public Radio/NPR/PBS

3%

3%

4%

2%

3%

4%

4%

5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

5%

<.5%

6%

2%

8%

3%

<1%

<.5%

3%

3%

2%

6%

3%

3%

4%

5%

3%

3%

6%

<.5%

5%

5%

<1%

5%

7%

<.5%

3%

[VOL] Newsmax

3%

3%

3%

1%

1%

1%

8%

5%

0%

2%

0%

5%

<1%

2%

5%

2%

6%

0%

<1%

4%

2%

4%

3%

3%

2%

5%

<1%

4%

3%

0%

7%

3%

0%

9%

1%

<.5%

8%

<1%

[VOL] Aggregation sites (such as Bing, Google, Yahoo News or Apple News)

3%

5%

2%

4%

4%

3%

3%

4%

2%

2%

4%

4%

2%

4%

3%

5%

3%

5%

<1%

5%

3%

3%

3%

2%

4%

3%

2%

3%

3%

4%

2%

8%

4%

2%

4%

4%

2%

3%

[VOL] International news sources (such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian)

2%

2%

2%

4%

3%

2%

1%

3%

<.5%

2%

4%

3%

2%

3%

2%

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

<.5%

4%

4%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

1%

5%

2%

1%

4%

2%

2%

5%

[VOL] Conservative news sites

2%

3%

1%

1%

2%

3%

1%

2%

<1%

<.5%

3%

2%

<1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

<.5%

3%

<1%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

<.5%

2%

2%

<.5%

4%

0%

<.5%

3%

3%

<.5%

4%

0%

[VOL] Liberal news sites (Such as Mother Jones and Occupy Democrats)

<1%

1%

<1%

<.5%

2%

1%

0%

<1%

<.5%

0%

3%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

1%

0%

<.5%

<1%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

2%

<.5%

0%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

2%

[VOL] Talk radio/conservative personality

<1%

<.5%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<1%

3%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

1%

<1%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

<1%

<1%

0%

1%

0%

0%

<1%

1%

0%

<1%

2%

[VOL] Local print or online news organizations

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

0%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

[VOL] Friends and family

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

[VOL] Doesn’t consume news

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

2%

1%

0%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

<1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

[VOL] Other (includes no preference and the internet)

7%

9%

5%

4%

4%

7%

9%

8%

4%

4%

6%

8%

4%

5%

8%

4%

9%

7%

3%

8%

5%

7%

6%

6%

7%

7%

3%

6%

7%

5%

8%

7%

5%

8%

7%

6%

8%

7%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

6%

8%

5%

10%

3%

7%

5%

6%

4%

12%

4%

6%

7%

2%

9%

2%

8%

1%

10%

4%

8%

5%

9%

5%

6%

8%

7%

3%

6%

4%

8%

9%

4%

8%

6%

3%

9%

10%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

And just a few more questions for demographic purposes...

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Very liberal

10%

9%

11%

15%

15%

7%

9%

9%

15%

15%

7%

9%

13%

13%

9%

13%

7%

15%

13%

11%

8%

10%

13%

19%

11%

4%

25%

10%

10%

21%

<1%

1%

26%

<.5%

5%

21%

<.5%

7%

Somewhat liberal

13%

11%

16%

21%

16%

10%

12%

12%

13%

22%

17%

12%

17%

15%

12%

16%

8%

11%

21%

10%

16%

12%

16%

18%

14%

9%

13%

11%

13%

23%

3%

12%

26%

2%

12%

22%

2%

17%

Moderate

37%

37%

37%

42%

42%

40%

29%

36%

43%

30%

52%

36%

41%

46%

31%

45%

30%

52%

33%

36%

41%

37%

35%

34%

43%

33%

41%

40%

37%

47%

27%

46%

39%

18%

55%

48%

24%

42%

Somewhat conservative

19%

19%

20%

11%

17%

24%

19%

22%

15%

14%

7%

22%

13%

13%

23%

12%

29%

14%

12%

22%

23%

19%

14%

15%

17%

25%

8%

21%

19%

5%

34%

19%

4%

34%

20%

6%

36%

15%

Very conservative

17%

21%

14%

9%

9%

15%

29%

19%

12%

14%

15%

19%

14%

12%

21%

13%

23%

7%

17%

20%

9%

20%

18%

11%

14%

26%

9%

16%

18%

3%

34%

6%

3%

44%

6%

2%

36%

12%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

3%

2%

2%

<1%

4%

1%

2%

3%

4%

<1%

2%

3%

1%

3%

<1%

2%

<1%

4%

2%

2%

2%

4%

3%

2%

3%

4%

3%

2%

1%

2%

16%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

6%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Under $25,000

6%

6%

6%

7%

4%

5%

8%

6%

5%

9%

7%

6%

7%

1%

9%

2%

9%

<.5%

10%

10%

4%

6%

5%

7%

4%

8%

15%

9%

6%

5%

6%

12%

6%

5%

6%

5%

6%

8%

At least $25,000 but under $50,000

14%

12%

16%

27%

11%

10%

16%

12%

14%

28%

11%

12%

18%

6%

20%

6%

17%

7%

26%

15%

13%

14%

14%

14%

13%

15%

16%

15%

14%

14%

14%

12%

13%

14%

16%

11%

14%

22%

At least $50,000 but under $100,000

29%

30%

29%

30%

30%

25%

35%

29%

37%

25%

32%

29%

31%

28%

31%

26%

31%

32%

31%

29%

25%

32%

30%

34%

26%

31%

30%

26%

29%

27%

33%

19%

28%

31%

29%

30%

31%

23%

At least $100,000 but under $200,000

30%

33%

27%

22%

35%

36%

22%

31%

26%

21%

36%

31%

27%

38%

24%

37%

27%

41%

18%

26%

29%

32%

30%

28%

32%

28%

22%

29%

30%

31%

28%

36%

32%

29%

29%

31%

29%

27%

$200,000 or more

12%

13%

12%

5%

16%

20%

5%

14%

9%

8%

10%

14%

9%

21%

7%

22%

9%

18%

3%

12%

19%

9%

12%

11%

16%

8%

11%

13%

12%

14%

12%

4%

12%

13%

13%

15%

11%

10%

[VOL] Refused

9%

6%

10%

9%

4%

4%

14%

8%

9%

10%

4%

8%

8%

7%

9%

7%

7%

2%

12%

9%

9%

8%

10%

6%

9%

10%

7%

8%

9%

8%

8%

18%

9%

8%

6%

9%

8%

10%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Catholic

17%

16%

19%

17%

14%

17%

21%

16%

6%

40%

10%

16%

20%

17%

18%

16%

16%

17%

22%

15%

25%

17%

14%

18%

20%

14%

23%

26%

17%

15%

19%

18%

17%

19%

16%

17%

18%

20%

Protestant/Christian

45%

44%

46%

27%

34%

48%

57%

47%

69%

23%

27%

47%

41%

39%

49%

38%

54%

46%

38%

53%

30%

55%

36%

37%

40%

56%

35%

38%

45%

35%

57%

27%

34%

60%

43%

36%

60%

30%

Mormon/Latter-day Saints

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

0%

1%

1%

<1%

0%

<1%

4%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

<.5%

2%

0%

0%

1%

2%

2%

0%

1%

0%

0%

<1%

<.5%

1%

5%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

<1%

Jewish

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

3%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

3%

<1%

4%

<1%

5%

1%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

4%

2%

3%

4%

2%

1%

6%

1%

2%

4%

<1%

0%

4%

<.5%

3%

4%

<1%

2%

Muslim

1%

2%

1%

2%

3%

1%

0%

<.5%

4%

2%

10%

<.5%

5%

2%

1%

0%

<.5%

6%

4%

1%

2%

2%

<.5%

2%

2%

<.5%

3%

<.5%

1%

<1%

1%

6%

2%

<.5%

2%

2%

<.5%

2%

[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

[VOL] Hindu

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

6%

0%

1%

<1%

<.5%

0%

0%

2%

1%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

0%

2%

<.5%

0%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

<1%

0%

[VOL] Buddhist

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

0%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<.5%

0%

<.5%

<.5%

<1%

<1%

0%

<.5%

Some other religion (specify)

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

<1%

9%

1%

3%

1%

2%

1%

2%

2%

4%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

<1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

No religious affiliation

28%

31%

25%

46%

43%

25%

15%

30%

17%

29%

30%

30%

24%

33%

25%

36%

25%

24%

25%

27%

31%

19%

40%

32%

31%

22%

26%

29%

28%

40%

16%

31%

41%

14%

30%

37%

15%

38%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

1%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

2%

2%

2%

<1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

3%

1%

2%

<1%

3%

1%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

10%

1%

<1%

2%

1%

<1%

4%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Yes

28%

28%

29%

15%

21%

30%

39%

29%

44%

15%

22%

29%

28%

21%

33%

18%

37%

30%

25%

34%

16%

39%

18%

21%

22%

41%

21%

23%

29%

16%

42%

19%

16%

46%

25%

17%

45%

18%

No

19%

18%

20%

17%

15%

22%

18%

20%

23%

8%

24%

20%

18%

21%

17%

22%

17%

18%

17%

19%

20%

18%

20%

21%

19%

18%

18%

20%

19%

21%

18%

11%

18%

18%

20%

21%

19%

16%

[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused

50%

51%

48%

67%

61%

46%

39%

49%

27%

74%

52%

49%

51%

56%

46%

58%

43%

49%

53%

44%

63%

40%

58%

55%

56%

39%

61%

56%

50%

60%

37%

66%

62%

34%

52%

60%

35%

62%

[VOL] Refused

3%

3%

3%

1%

2%

2%

5%

2%

6%

2%

3%

2%

4%

2%

3%

1%

3%

3%

4%

2%

<1%

4%

3%

3%

3%

2%

<.5%

1%

3%

3%

2%

4%

3%

2%

3%

2%

2%

3%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter?

U.S. Likely Electorate

Gender

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Race/Ethnicity

Education

Race/Education

Region

Neighborhood Type

Sub-poll

2024 Vote (Head to Head)

Party ID

2020 Vote

Men

Women

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Oth.

White

Non-white

B.A.+

No B.A.

White, college

White, no college

Non-white, college

Non-white, no college

Midwest

North-East

South

West

City

Suburb

Rural/ Small Town

Phil.

Rest of Pa.

Rest of U.S.

Harris

Trump

Oth.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Biden

Trump

Did not vote

Yes

35%

42%

29%

35%

38%

37%

32%

34%

39%

35%

37%

34%

37%

41%

31%

42%

29%

39%

36%

28%

40%

36%

36%

40%

38%

29%

44%

33%

35%

39%

32%

22%

37%

30%

38%

40%

32%

31%

No

65%

58%

71%

65%

62%

63%

68%

66%

61%

65%

63%

66%

63%

59%

69%

58%

71%

61%

64%

72%

60%

64%

64%

60%

62%

71%

56%

67%

65%

61%

68%

78%

63%

70%

62%

60%

68%

69%

Number of respondents

2,003

921

1,050

350

511

632

429

1,329

268

185

156

1,329

609

1,014

972

714

607

270

336

262

1,053

414

274

607

817

579

304

556

1,143

1,077

823

103

738

554

578

952

656

333

Percentage of total electorate

100%

47%

51%

13%

22%

33%

29%

68%

11%

11%

7%

68%

29%

40%

59%

28%

39%

11%

18%

22%

20%

35%

24%

21%

43%

36%

<.5%

4%

96%

47%

47%

5%

32%

31%

30%

44%

41%

12%

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents.

Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither are available, it is as reported on the voter file.

Neighborhood type is a New York Times classification based on each voter’s address. Voters within a metropolitan area’s central city are classified as living in a city. Voters living in a metropolitan area but outside the central city are considered suburban if they live in a census-designated urban area. All other voters — those living in nonmetropolitan areas, and those living in non-urbanized parts of metropolitan areas outside the central city — are classified as living in small towns or rural areas.

How These Polls Were Conducted

Here are the key things to know about these polls:

• Interviewers spoke with 2,437 likely voters from Sept. 11 to 16, 2024.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Overall, about 96 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed more than 240,000 calls to nearly 118,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The national poll’s margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Pennsylvania poll’s margin of error among likely voters is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why The Times/Siena Poll is conducted, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 2,437 registered voters nationwide, including polls of Pennsylvania and Philadelphia conducted in partnership with the Philadelphia Inquirer, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Sept. 11 to 16, 2024.

The margin of sampling error for the national poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the likely electorate. For the Pennsylvania poll, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the likely electorate. Among registered voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points nationally and plus or minus 3.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

The Pennsylvania and Philadelphia polls were funded by a grant from the Lenfest Institute for Journalism. The polls, which were designed and conducted independently from the institute, were weighted so that in the end, respondents in Philadelphia represent the proper proportion of the poll of Pennsylvania. Similarly, the national poll was weighted so that respondents from Pennsylvania represent the proper proportion of the country.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, records were selected by state. In Pennsylvania, records were selected separately for the poll of Philadelphia and of the rest of the state To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state, telephone number quality and other demographic and political characteristics. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records, divided by the national sum of the weights.

Fielding

The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida, the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, across all three samples, 96 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, across all three samples, 12 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 15 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, each poll was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by a classification of how strongly partisan the respondent is based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• National region, if part of the national sample (NYT classifications by state)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections, if part of the national sample (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Metropolitan status, if part of the national sample (2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

• Census tract educational attainment, if part of the national sample

• State region, if part of the Pennsylvania sample

• Record of requesting an absentee ballot for the 2024 general election, if part of the Pennsylvania or Philadelphia samples

Third, the sums of the weights of the polls were balanced so that respondents in Philadelphia represented the proper proportion of the Pennsylvania poll and respondents in Pennsylvania represented the proper proportion of the national poll.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Fifth, the sums of the weights of the polls were balanced so that respondents in Philadelphia represented the proper proportion of the Pennsylvania poll and respondents in Pennsylvania represented the proper proportion of the national poll.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting.

For the national poll, the design effect is 2.3 for the likely electorate and 2.05 for registered voters. The margin of error for the sample of respondents who completed the entire survey is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for the likely electorate, including a design effect of 2.33, and plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for registered voters, including a design effect of 2.1.

For the Pennsylvania poll, the design effect for the full sample is 1.60 for the likely electorate and 1.51 for registered voters. The margin of error for the sample of respondents who completed the entire survey is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for the likely electorate, including a design effect of 1.62, and plus or minus 4.1 percentage points among registered voters, including a design effect of 1.54.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

Composition of the Sample

Group

Unweighted All R.V.s

Weighted All R.V.s

Weighted Likely Electorate

N

Gender

Men

46%

48%

47%

1122

Women

53

51

52

1283

Age

18 to 29

18%

16%

13%

434

30 to 44

26

23

22

627

45 to 64

30

31

33

726

65 and older

22

25

28

526

Education

High school

19%

31%

28%

465

Some college

32

30

30

783

College

26

23

25

633

Post-graduate

22

14

16

526

Home Ownership (L2 Model)

Likely renter

26%

24%

21%

639

Likely homeowner

52

54

59

1272

Unknown

22

22

20

526

Marital Status (L2 Model)

Married

52%

52%

58%

1258

Unknown

48

48

42

1179

Party (Self-Reported)

Democrat

36%

30%

31%

876

Republican

27

30

31

670

Independent

28

30

29

676

Party (Based on L2 Data)

Democrat

41%

34%

36%

1008

Republican

31

30

33

747

Other

28

37

31

682

Race (L2 Model)

White

61%

62%

65%

1485

Hispanic

10

12

10

246

Black

13

10

9

319

Asian

3

4

4

67

Other

3

3

3

68

Race (L2 Model)

White

61%

62%

65%

1485

Nonwhite

29

29

26

702

National Region

Midwest

12%

21%

22%

304

Northeast

54

20

20

1312

South

20

36

35

493

West

13

23

24

328

Turnout History (Based on L2 Data)

Voted in last midterm and in a primary

42%

42%

51%

1029

Voted in last two midterms

19

22

23

468

Voted in last general, no midterm

15

13

12

369

Did not vote in last general or midterm

13

13

6

314

New registrant

11

10

8

257

Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate (2025)
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